New South Wales voters to have a beer with Hobson

We live in times that Edward Gibbon, of Decline and Fall fame, would probably have seen as being consistent with the broad general themes of the growth and decay of societies. Everyone recognises that the government (in this case the New South Wales Government, but to varying degrees it holds true in every Australian state) is incompetent in whole and corrupt in parts, but they aren’t prepared to do anything to change it even though they despise the bread and circuses they are being offered.

They are convinced of the proposition that the Opposition would be even worse, absurd as this might seem! How could any government be worse than the one they have now?

Perhaps it is not actually a perception that they would be worse, but rather much the same. On this basis electors may be voting for governments on how relatively comfortable they are with them socially. In other words they are answering the question: “Which of these two parties would you rather have a beer with?” rather than “Which of them would be best to govern you?”

I base these comments on the light that the focus group research that we have conducted on the New South Wales election shines on our larger poll. We only conducted one focus group - but as the results were consistent with the polling this would appear to be enough. You can download the polling from here and the focus group transcript from here (PDF 64KB).

All of our participants were people who indicated they would vote against their traditional habits in this election, or had yet to make up their mind, so they are classic swinging voters. There was a mixture of Labor, Liberal and Independents in the group.

Voters are pretty disgusted with the choice they are being offered (all responses are verbatim, including typos):

"Hobson's choice ...", Tony9

"i think the whole election can be described as bland versus colourless", according to Susan10.

"I was looking forward to the election, hoping to see the end of labor pretending to run the state, however, yet again, the libs have failed to produce a viable alternative.. the greens were an option however knowing their preferences are going to labor... ahhh... nsw is a pit", Julie13

So, the thought of socialising with the Labor Government is not very inviting. So what about the Opposition? Well, it appears in this case there’s someone they might have liked to drink with, but he’s moved out of town - John Brogden. But they’re not enthusiastic about the rest.

"to me it seems the same old spin and rhetoric we get every election. Debnam has failed to gel with the public and the ghost of John Brogdan hangsover him." Robingail

"agree with Ian about right wing of libs. I would have voted for Brogden", Ann11

"I would have too (voted for Brogden) *", Ian5

Voters are still flirting with the idea of a protest vote, the thing you traditionally do if you don’t want to change the government, and there is potential for one (Debnam has that much right) but it appears to be going against both major parties, and to Greens and Independents (but because there aren't enough of them in winnable seats this won't have much impact on the actual election result).

"That wouldn't send labor the right message and we could get caught. I'd rather vote independent" Ann11

"I think people are going to be voting green to send a message, not libs - which, with preferences will mean labor gets in again", Julie13

"not way in hell ... a pox on both their houses", robingail

"haha rotate", Susan10

"the message would be via an independent/green party", Helen2

And maybe there is an element of the social here. When you probe voters about their resistance to voting for the Coalition it comes down to issues of conservatism, class, personality, and religious fanaticism.

These aren’t characteristics that you tend to associate with most of the independents running in this election. While voters might think they can’t afford a good enough suit to drink with the “Member for Vaucluse”, they don’t harbour the same reservations about independents. So, if you can’t vote for them seriously, give them the Clayton’s version, the protest vote.

The Liberals electability is also affected to some extent by their association with the Federal Government. The ALP has run heavily on IR, but voters appear to be quite able to distinguish between levels of government when voting and know that this is a federal issue.

This group also seemed disinclined to buy Iemma's criticism of Debnam that he would cut 20,000 public service jobs and hand over industrial relations to Canberra.

But in a campaign sense perhaps these things are significant not because they think Debnam has any control over them or is will do them, but because it demonstrates the sort of social set that he moves in. Voters have never voted for John Howard because they like him, but because they think he is effective. Being his friend, but in another level of government where he has no direct power, means that you associate yourself with his character rather than his actions.

Voters would like to make a choice based on policy and performance. But while they agree with Debnam that the greatest risk this election is "that nothing changes", they don't see him as the solution to it. So with no solution in sight, what do you do? Drown your sorrows - and here comes Morris Iemma at the right time. No wonder things are so crook in NSW, the premier’s always out socialising.