Ducking and weaving on climate change

The PM is now telling the Australian public that he acknowledges the link between greenhouse emissions and climate change, but says he does not believe the more gloomy predictions. It is ironic that a PM who calls for students to be taught the influence of the Enlightenment can argue that he only believes part of the climate science, as if science was a buffet from which he can pick and choose.

Consistent with Nick Minchin’s principles, the Government has also undertaken an inquiry into emissions trading. And as occurred in the early 2000s, there is talk of emissions trading. However, the PM has made emissions trading subject to several qualifications, including that it won’t be introduced until there is an international system or if it could harm employment in the coal industry.

According to the principle of common but differentiated responsibility that underlies the international climate change treaties, binding targets necessary to establish a global trading scheme won’t be extended to developing countries until the developed world has taken the lead. Consequently, the US-Australia position has created an impasse: we refuse to act until the developing world does, but the developing world won’t act until we do.

The second qualification leads to the same place. By definition, an emissions trading scheme is intended to raise the price of products that are responsible for the emission of greenhouse gases. The price rise is what provides the incentive for the economy to shift to more greenhouse friendly technologies. This will draw jobs away from the coal industry, but new jobs will be created elsewhere.

The Government knows this and uses spin as a substitute for action. And the political strategy is obvious - the Government tries to paint itself as the guardian of economic prosperity by refusing to introduce effective measures to cut emissions, while seeking to turn climate change into what the Tasmanian forestry policy was for Mark Latham in 2004.

The key question is whether the ALP can counter the PM’s message and offer viable policies that appeal to the electorate and put Australia on the path to sustainable prosperity.