Cambodia: the changing political landscape

On March 2, 2006 the National Assembly overwhelmingly voted in favour of an SRP resolution allowing for a new government to be formed with a simple majority. Hun Sen and the CPP had good reason to be pleased with what was an excellent turn of events for them.

The CPP no longer has to chase the elusive tail of the two-thirds monster. Neither does it need the FCP any longer to give the government a kinder face. The CPP has arrived. Its track record is better now than those of the other two parties. Nevertheless, it is in its strategic interest to see the FCP once again become viable as a counter to the SRP which presently remains the potential long-term threat for the CPP.

The SRP is seriously rebuilding the party to face the Commune elections in April 2007 and the General Elections in 2008. It has just appointed former FCP Women's Affairs Minister Mu Sochua, who crossed over, as the new SRP Secretary General - in what some think was probably the party's best move in 2006! Although the SRP has lost some of its lustre and appeal it is the only credible opposition at the moment and can expected to renew its strident support of populist causes.

On the other hand, by mid 2006 FUNCINPEC was almost a dysfunctional party with insiders alleging that Ranariddh's long periods of absence from the country, his falling out with Hun Sen and his preoccupation with personal problems were seen as serious impediments to the party's growth. In October a rival faction, reportedly with strategic advice from friends in the CPP, removed Ranariddh from the presidency and replaced him with his sober brother-in-law, Ambassador Keo Puth Rasmey.

Ranariddh, now heading a fledgling small party, is being sued by his wife for adultery and by his erstwhile party colleagues for allegedly misappropriating US$3.6 million he had obtained by unilaterally disposing off party assets. Ranariddh's lawyers have challenged this and have pointed out that the sale was not unilateral and that the funds are accounted for. Neutral observers see the charges as being politically motivated. It has been a bleak 2006 for him and there are no silver linings in sight.

The overall result of these almost choreographed developments is that Hun Sen is the single most powerful person in Cambodia today. If any challenge should emerge in 2007 it can only be from within his own party and no such likelihood is in sight.

Hun Sen will now face much lesser internal opposition to move up more competent second echelon leaders many of whom are reform-minded. However, the albatross will remain the pervasive corruption in the country and the challenge to usher in good governance. His many detractors will watch him eagle-eyed.

Those close to him privately suggest that Hun Sen, the longest serving prime minister in South-East Asia, will want to concentrate now on raising the image of his country and in the process, enhance his personal image.