The political outlook in Australia in 2007 and beyond

Between the contenders, the Galaxy poll shows that Mr Turnbull’s support is boosted by Labor voters, but it does not measure how many Labor voters would change their vote if Mr Turnbull were leader. Apparently Mr Abbott is more popular in the Coalition heartland. Mr Abbott is criticised by the commentariat for his principled stand on a range of issues. But if he advanced their views on these issues, he too would be promoted by the commentariat.

Athletic, more in touch with the rank and file voters than most politicians, and a thinker who writes well, they would make him a star.

Mr Nelson is still less known than the other contenders, but as he settles into the defence portfolio that will probably change. Although he is not listed here, Mr Downer must also be a potential contender. Notwithstanding the predictable hostility of the commentariat, he has been a very successful Foreign Minister.

The expectation remains that in the event of Mr Howard standing down, Mr Costello will be elected leader by Liberal Party members and senators. But Mr Costello has not advanced his cause by his increasingly ineffectual attempts to force John Howard to stand down. In fact, the longer Mr Howard is in office, the more Mr Costello’s star seems to wane.

Until recently, it was expected that Mr Costello would be unchallenged should the leadership fall vacant. Mr Nelson, who, like Mr Abbott and Mr Downer, is not a republican, has put an end to that. He has indicated he will definitely stand. This will probably force others to throw their hat into the ring.

Much will depend on the atmosphere at the time, including the likelihood that the Opposition will still be led by Kevin Rudd, who will probably prove to be a more serious contender than his three predecessors. Even if Labor were to lose the 2007 election, it is likely that Mr Rudd will have performed well and dented the Coalition majority.

Mr Rudd seems to be moving the ALP more to the centre right on a range of issues, and away from the dominance that the inner city elites exercised in the party over the last decade. The Australian system of preferential voting should ensure they remain captive to the ALP, unless the Liberals were to swing to the left as some state parties have in the past.

Mr Rudd has yet to declare his position on the republic, apart from the usual sort of nominal obeisance to this party platform objective. A similar nominal obeisance was once given to the socialist objective in most of the years that it was not only in the platform, but on every ticket issued to members.

Apart from rejecting republicanism, the most sensible course for Mr Rudd would be to resort to the mantra that a “republic is inevitable”. This would put the republic off the agenda. This would comfort those who hope that the ALP leader is not out of touch and is concerned with the issues that matter to the rank and file.

This could encourage a future Liberal leader to fill the vacuum and announce a republican agenda. This would foolish as both the party and the coalition would be divided.

The point is that it can no longer be assumed that the next Liberal leader will be Mr Costello, or that the leader will be a republican. Whatever happens in 2007, where the polls indicate most Australians expect a coalition victory, it cannot of course be assumed that the prime minister after the 2010 election will be a Liberal.

It seems that the republic may not be on the immediate agenda in the next two elections. But this cannot be guaranteed. There is no sign that the ultra republicans in our parliaments will not, by their shadowy factional deals, ensure governments continue or at least do not reverse their program of introducing a republic by stealth - “creeping republicanism”. And, as we know, there are no limits to the promises some politicians will make if, sensing an electoral loss, they become desperate.