Prince Norodom Ranariddh now the 'historic leader' of his party

Hun Sen's coffin outburst was the latest indicator that the cosy relations that had developed between him and Ranariddh, following the formation of the coalition government in July 4, had deteriorated badly and at a time when ugly infighting within the FCP had reached new heights.

While FCP is rushing downhill in a hurry, the opposition Sam Rainsy Party which stands to gain most by FCP's disappearance, is only just getting out of the doldrums after Sam Rainsy's lengthy self-exile. It is beginning to again make noises in preparation for the April 2007 Commune Council Elections and the 2008 General Elections and can be expected to renew its strident support of populist causes. Although the party is weaker now than when it went into elections in 2003, it remains the only credible opposition at the moment.

Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party, on the other hand, has been going from strength to strength. Most importantly, it no longer needs FCP or SRP to form government as unlike in the previous three elections when a two-thirds majority was required to form government, a recent amendment makes this possible with a simple majority. The CPP can comfortably fulfill this new requirement.

As for the FCP, the prognosis will depend on Ranariddh's reaction to this realignment of forces in which the Bun Chhay faction, which can work with the CPP, is on the ascendency. If no compromises are arrived at and the debilitating factionalism continues, a disillusioned electorate might bring an end to the part's misery.

There are, however, the optimists like that Cambodian observer, who hope that the new leaders will be given an opportunity to resurrect the party.