Scenario 4: environmental crisis brings global meltdown
Global warming is a real problem, the Gulf Stream becoming erratic causing dramatic weather fluctuations in Europe, the ice sheets melting fast and causing sea levels to rise several metres. Strong storms ravage cities and crop failure becomes common. The global economy is in crisis, there is extended starvation in various regions as food supplies are disrupted by environmental and economic factors.
Due to a combination of corporate publicity and the Republican Government, the US refuses to participate in global management of the problem. Instead, the US further mobilises its armed forces in an attempt to control remaining oil supplies and exclude refugees.
China responds by stepping up its armament program, growing closer to Russia, while the rest of the world falls into disarray. International co-operation erodes and a period of general rearmament ensues. The US attempts to build a rich world alliance (the US, Western Europe, Japan, Australia) as a Chinese/Russian/Indian bloc takes shape.
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Proxy wars are fought in various places, with confusion over whether WMDs have been used. To reassert control, the US uses a tactical nuclear device, to which the North Asian bloc replies. The world slides into uncontrolled warfare as global warming heats up. Humans begin to die in their millions.
Who knows what will actually happen - the only certainty is that big changes lie ahead. As things stand, the evidence suggests that global warming is occurring, the causes are largely social and the growing awareness of “tipping points” is causing even more concern. If we are lucky, the models will turn out to be pessimistic, or natural processes will act to re-balance nature in our favour. If not, and global warming is under way and unstoppable, we face hard choices.
Of course things can change very quickly. A US President Gore might energise that great nation to lead beneficial change in the way it did during World War II; a new generation Murdoch might use his power over mass communications to generate genuine public pressure for change; a catastrophe might transform the growing fear into a demand for decisive action.
Whatever happens, we’re all of us along for the ride, even if it is our children and grandchildren who’ll be the ones to reach the final destination.
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