Politics and a greener future

There are two interesting trends in Australian politics presently. First, the environment is at last becoming a primary issue as the Howard Government isolates itself from world activism on global warming. Second, the ALP is fast losing any claim to be a genuinely progressive alternative to the conservative parties.

With the apparent demise of the Australian Democrats, these trends together suggest that the Greens have a bright political future. The question is whether the Greens can pull off the balancing act of staying principled while they gain electoral relevance.

The next few years are likely to see the environment become the core concern for what is now a global civilisation. As such, it will increasingly come to dominate politics, which is currently still national scale and centred on socio-economic matters.

The central environmental problem is of course global warming. It is now clear that such a thing is happening, that humans are doing it, and that costs to natural species, to property, to human health and ultimately to human life may be catastrophic. One of the latest concerns is the possibility that the Gulf Stream will cease operating and plunge northern Europe into a mini-ice age. If nothing else, such an event would have a disastrous impact on economic conditions worldwide.

Most national governments now accept the need for drastic action on climate change, the main hold outs being the United States and Australia. The governments of the US and Australia argue that, yes, global warming probably is under way, but the proposed remedies will hurt the economy. They seem to place their hopes in new technology, such as hydrogen fuel cells and nuclear power.

Nonetheless, there is now a genuine debate emerging in these countries over the necessary responses to climate change, and it is ever more rapidly reshaping national politics. The Liberals, of course, are a complete wash-out on this topic, while the Nationals are losing all relevance. So how are the other parties situated?

The Australian Greens are a dedicated environmentalist party and the Democrats have a generally good record on the subject. The ALP has mostly swung too and fro, according to perceptions of electoral advantage. The ALP has never been able to integrate environmental issues into the fabric of the party or political culture, largely because of the abiding power of the industrial right.

While the ALP has not been able to reposition itself as a broad front opposition party, the decline of class solidarity and in particular of mass unionisation have seen its traditional support base erode. Furthermore, an internal culture of careerism and endemic corruption has gutted the party of its best personnel and most serious thinkers. It has fallen to providing no more than competent state governments and at a national level is moribund. Now led by its most conservative leader ever, it is utterly dependent on reacting to initiatives by the dominant conservatives.

So, with Labor in decline and the environment moving to centre stage, can the Greens become a real power - the third force in Australian politics?

So far, it has to be said, the Greens have been something of a disappointment. Despite having the clearest intent, some genuinely innovative policies and a base of enthusiastic supporters, they have generally failed to provide sustained political leadership. There have been too many embarrassing episodes, too little internal cohesion and too little sustained strategy to convince those outside the hardcore that the Greens are a power in waiting.

However, the signs are good. Senator Bob Brown has provided a real presence for some time, and with senators like Kerry Nettle, Christine Milne and Rachel Siewert providing support, the Greens now look much more formidable. If they are smart, the Greens may be able to gain a crucial position in the national politics.

To succeed, traps must be avoided and basic requirements met. The Greens must continue to provide high quality politicians. The fewer the people you have, the more important it is that they be good quality. This is not easy in an activist party, because the requisite skills of effective politicians and not always those of effective activists. The best solution to this problem is to create a culture where the politicians are integrated members of teams, not the sole actors. Activists can then pursue careers as staffers, keeping their expertise and enthusiasm working behind the scenes.

The Greens should also avoid the temptation of trying to become mainstream too fast. As the Democrats found out, to shift from the principled margins to the inevitably compromised centre is risky. The Greens should leave the soft centre to the ALP (and remnant Democrats) for the time being, and instead maintain principled positions on the core issues. As such, they can generate and promote alternative ideas, maintain the loyalty of committed activists, and provide trained and motivated personnel to take alternative ideas forward.

There is no doubt that history is on the side of the Greens. In the medium term the imminent environmental crisis will push the electorate towards the Greens, as long as they stay true to an alternative vision. But whether it is the Greens, the ALP or the conservatives that actually implement policy originating with the Greens, the point is to achieve material change, not just political power. This has always been the bugbear of the ALP - the idea that only political power enables the ability to achieve change.

One day, perhaps sooner than anyone thinks, the Greens may form government in Australia, in coalition or even in their own right. This is most likely to occur if they can create and maintain the image of a party focussed on the material realities of twenty-first century life, and not just the political process. Sooner or later the voters will realise how profoundly the major parties - focusing as they have on economic mythology and political opportunism - have failed them in ignoring the environment, and they will turn elsewhere for leadership.

If they can keep their nerve, the future looks bright for the Greens because, without question, the environment is the big political issue of the 21st century. But for those who want to create a politics genuinely responsive to the real issues of the new century, the hard work has only just begun.