The tide has turned

In reality, a leading candidate polling 45 per cent or more is looking set to retain their seat, if there are more than two opposing candidates.

The more opponents, the lower the primary vote needed. With seven candidates in the field, Liberal Terry Rogers won Redcliffe with 41.2 per cent of the primary vote.

With an average primary vote swing of 12 per cent from the polls, we have modelled the likely primary vote outcome for Labor candidates according to the by-election demographic profiles.

These provide a range of swings, which, when we remove the two outliers, leaves swings of between plus 4 per cent down to minus 25 per cent, and bearing in mind the swings in Chatsworth were up to 19 per cent, this seems reasonable.

The computer projections can best be interpreted by drawing a circle around the older inner-city seats along the river, and then a line, from north of Mackay to north of Mount Isa.

The swings in some of the inner city marginal Labor seats, like Clayfield or Indooroopilly, look negligible, while the swings on the Sunshine Coast, in Noosa, Glasshouse and the northern provincial-rural based seats of Cook, Barron River, Townsville, Cairns and Thuringowa, seem to be within manageable proportions for Labor sitting MPs. That's about it for the good news for Labor.

Unfortunately for the Government, the big swings wipe them out across large swathes of seats across the middle ranging suburbs to the north and south of the Brisbane CBD and swings worsen as the distance from the CBD increases, out to Capalaba, Cleveland, Ipswich and the Gold Coast. The real disaster zones for the Beattie Government are looking like Rockhampton, Mount Isa and Mackay.

Government members remaining in Parliament - perhaps as few as 28 - once again will become defenders of parliamentary standards and the rights of an Opposition led by Anna Bligh (with 12 Left votes) and Deputy John Mickel (with 8 AWU votes).

The results for the Liberal and National parties show a picture of votes and seats very reminiscent of the 1970s and '80s.

The Coalition, with up to 55 MPs, will be led by premier Lawrence Springborg, courtesy of his current 15 MPs being supplemented by strong performances in the southern provincial cities and in three-cornered contests with the Liberals, and the likely regaining of some Independent seats.

The Liberals will poll well in Brisbane, with some Independent challenges, one suspects, but the doubtful seats are all ones being fought over by Liberals and Labor, and whatever our computer programs tell us, we can't see Tom Burns' old seat of Lytton being won by a Liberal.