Life after Howard – claiming the nation’s values

Any transition is also complicated by whether Costello would forge a new direction for government. Given Howard's current performance and poll results, any new directions would be high-risk politics. For instance, what does Costello think of the anti-terror laws? Or the current refugee policies? Does he fully agree?

The notional view is he is more liberal than Howard, but Costello appears a blank canvas on law and order and border protection, and does not discuss family values widely. Where does he sit on these issues?

Unlike Costello, Brown has heavy support within his party. Brown represents something to Labour - a comfort zone away from the ultra-centrist Blair - whereas Costello offers nothing new (or old) to the Liberals that Howard does not offer them now. Indeed, Blair will be replaced when Brown can prove that he can win elections, and this is likely to be later this term.

Brown for his part uses his party conference speech each year as the leadership speech-in-waiting. He outlines his moral and philosophical beliefs widely and lets his specific policy disagreements with Blair be known. The British public consequently knows Brown far better than the Australian public knows Costello.

Kim Beazley faces a recognition problem too. His values, core beliefs, agenda and program for governance are not made out in a manner that can challenge “Emperor Howard”.

Beazley has suffered because of his earlier small-target strategy, even though he holds strong values. Beazley should also take a leaf out of Brown's book and make a claim to the values of the nation - obtaining a widely reported forum to do this. While this is high-risk politics, the public requires it before taking him on trust.

By failing to present a strong alternative, Costello and Beazley have helped create an uber-Howard that identifies strong directed leadership for the Australian public. Despite this, no one seriously believes Howard will be prime minister in five years time. So what will happen between now and his departure?

Unlike the fate awaiting Bush and Blair, Howard's is still a mystery. Australians are waiting for their alternative leaders to set out an alternative. Who will spell out the next defining message for the Australian community: Costello or Beazley, or someone after them?

With the possibility that leadership could skip a generation (see David Cameron coming through for the Tories) the current candidates need to take their chance.

Which values will shape the next generation of world leadership? The next three years will be as important as the transition from Keating, Major, and Clinton. What will it bring? Who will be standing at the top? McCain, Brown, and …?