Don't get too close to Beijing

If that doesn't concentrate our minds, what will?

Which brings me to the question of where our geopolitical interests lie. China has eclipsed Japan to become the most important country in Asia. It is a matter of serious concern that Beijing is taking such a belligerent attitude towards Japan. That can only raise tensions in northeast Asia and put regional security at risk. As important as Australia's relations are with China, our relationship with Japan is much more important. As Howard has said, "Australia has no greater friend in Asia than Japan". We had better remember that.

The Asia-Pacific region, despite increasing economic prosperity, is likely to pose significant challenges to our security interests in the coming decade. And none is more important than the rise of an undemocratic China. Economic success has given China an advantage over earlier forms of dictatorship, such as the Soviet Union. But countries such as ours, which care about freedom and openness, should not succumb to the temptation of believing that we are better off with a China without politics, without organised dissent or without troublesome things such as opposition parties or a free press. Do we really want to have a strategic partnership with that kind of country?

Hopefully, China's rise will indeed be peaceful. But history suggests otherwise. We need to be alert to the risk that Beijing's growing economic and military influence may come to be applied less benignly in our region.

The Australian Government cannot afford to be so completely preoccupied with the war on terror (as frightening as that is) that we take our eye off the geopolitical ball of a rising China. That would indeed be a serious failure of strategic policy.