Don't push Myanmar into a corner

Meanwhile, there is a school of thought - not just in the CLMV countries but also in ASEAN as a whole - that seriously doubts whether the present "take it or leave it" Western approach can achieve its objectives in Myanmar.

This school believes the strong-arm methods at best bruise the ego of the ruling junta in Yangon without directly benefiting or furthering the cause of Myanmar's people - the very purpose for the sanctions and threats in the first place. In fact, the fear is that Myanmar may be driven backwards. This school bemoans that Western powers and liberal bleeding-hearts do not understand regional dynamics, and while all the grandstanding and loud threats may serve to placate some constituencies at home, it is counter-productive in encouraging reform in the target country.

They point out that in the present instance, Myanmar can, for example, take a rain check on the chairmanship and then proceed, within the constitutional process, at a pace with which the junta is comfortable. Here, members of this school of thought point to China with its quiet diplomacy playing a cleverer regional game than Western countries - supporting the theory that there are times when it is best that less is said.

Myanmar bears a heavy burden and increasingly, the indications are it is waiting for an appropriate time and forum to pass up its turn at chairmanship. Apparently, it has privately dropped encouraging hints to individual member countries of its intention to sacrifice national pride and be helpful to the region. Should this happen, it would demonstrate a definite shift in the attitude of this proud country.

While waiting for the next move, possibly at the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in July, here is something to ponder. There was a time not too long ago when a Myanmar that had come under the kind of pressure of the past months would have just walked out of ASEAN. No doubt it is a somewhat different Myanmar now - perhaps less confident and arguably less united. Nevertheless, the possibility cannot be dismissed that it can still walk out of the regional organisation.

In such a situation, Myanmar would have calculated it need not fear isolation - it can move closer to China and to India while continuing to maintain bilateral relations with its erstwhile ASEAN partners.

Such a move will neither be good for the region, nor for the people of Myanmar.