UK - Labour in front but flagging

In front but flagging

The standard dilemmas typical of the experiences of any long-serving government are affecting Labour.

First, claims that “we have plans to fix x, y and z” are met with the answer “why didn’t you do them over the last eight years then?”

Second, they’ve inevitably generated plenty of enemies and disillusioned rebels since 1997. Former Cabinet members like Robin Cook may bite their tongues till the election’s done, but their dislike of the leadership is known. Moreover, former MPs actively campaigning against the Party such as Brian Sedgemore and George Galloway mean that Labour is under siege both from a resurgent Conservative right, and a left outraged by anti-Iraq conflict - which not only has its own party (the Lib Dems) but has a chunk of the Labour Party, too.

Third, they seem tired. Much of the heat has gone out of the Government, and this has been reflected in the pre-election period. Labour has been largely reactive rather than active in this campaign. Whether it be in response to being heckled by mothers of disabled children, the celebrity chefs or a Conservative Party livelier than it’s been since it lost power in 1997, the time has come when Labour no longer controls events - they control Labour.

The Prime Minister has pledged to stand down before the next election, but also to serve a full term. Speculation as to when exactly in the next Parliament he would step down were he to be returned has been rife, as has discussion of potential successors. The odds-on favourite is the Chancellor of the Exchequer (Treasurer), Gordon Brown. The Conservatives ran an advert with the slogan “Vote Blair, Get Brown” but it was short lived, probably because that seems a better deal to most voters than just getting Blair, whose credibility and popularity post-Iraq has been badly damaged.

Mainstream polls, to varying degrees, still predict a Labour victory. What both parties stress is that their own polling in the seats that matter - the marginals that may change hands - say things are much closer than that.