From left field: Labor still in the hunt, but then again they always were

Three weeks ago, I made a number of ‘predictions’ (for want of a better term). The core of the crystal ball exercise then was that the most likely outcome was the status quo (with some shuffling of the deck chairs) and a less likely scenario was a hung parliament with Jacki Kelly jumping into bed with the One Nation-types in the House of Reps and the Senate.

My Pick

A few weeks on, and with much campaigning under the water my pick for the weekend is a narrow win for the Coalition, with Labor making a net gain of 2 seats nationwide. The wash-up is Labor 69, Independents 2 (Katter and Andren – Windsor will miss out in New England) and Coalition 79.

In Queensland, Labor will win Herbert and Petrie but lose Dickson. It will not gain Moreton, Longman, Wide Bay or Hinkler. Labor will hold Ryan, just. Up 1 in Queensland.

In NSW Labor will lose Macarthur and Parramatta, hold Dobell (which I had previously thought was on the ropes), and win Richmond. The GST targeting of caravan park dwellers will be enough to swing Richmond to Labor. Down 1.

In Victoria, Labor will pick up La Trobe and Ballarat. No losses are anticipated. Up 2.

In SA, Labor can win Makin but Adelaide will stay in Coalition hands. Up 1.

In WA, Canning will fall to the Coalition with the increased weight of the rural demographic tipping Labor out. Down 1.

Tasmania, Labor can now hold its seats, so no change.

Preferences

Much has been made of the preference deals made between Labor and the Democrats and the Greens. Frankly, I don’t think this will amount to much net gain at all for the ALP though it will consolidate the general favourable flow of preferences it receives from these two parties.

Labor would pick up around 65% of Democrat preferences and 70% of Green preferences regardless of whether a deal has been done or not. With deals in place, Coalition voters who would otherwise have voted ‘1’ Democrat or Green will fall back into the Coalition’s camp (reaction to the deals), thereby naturally increasing the proportion of preferences that will go the Labor from the two smaller parties.

It will simply be a matter of mathematics rather than the deal having any real effect.