From left field: preaching to the converted doesn't attract swingers

"No evidence was found of heightened support for Labor amongst the ‘intelligentsia’. In fact the strongest correlation of the anti-Labor swing was university/TAFE teachers/lecturers and younger persons clustered around the University of Queensland". (See John Black’s article – Ryan By-Election Swings and Charts, www.australiandevelopmentstrategies.com.au.)

But in terms of "aspirational" individuals and families, comprising particularly those who are working two white-collar jobs, earning $50,000-$65,000 each per year and paying off a mortgage of $1,500 a month (or more if in Sydney), Labor’s policy mix is a shade off the mark.

Which is precisely why the ALP is right now very much out of the running in outer-suburban electorates like Moreton, Dickson and Longman in Queensland. Add to this list Petrie (which I had originally thought – wrongly as it now seems – could be won by Labor) and you’ve got a situation in Brisbane of Labor experiencing a net loss of 1. Even if it picks up Hinkler (unlikely) and Herbert (maybe), that’s a net gain of 1, which simply isn’t good enough if Labor wants to win government.

In this election campaign Labor has been strongly focused on its base, and has done little to reach out into lesser known territory, with the exception of the narrow intelligentsia demographic.

Policies have been geared to appeal to the traditional Labor voter (blue collar workers, earning the average wage with a high school education), and the very narrow constituency of the public sector and intelligentsia. Public sector workers have tended to be Labor supporters anyway (or Democrats-then-Labor voters) and the intelligentsia doesn’t make up much of the electorate.