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Pick the results

By David Fraser - posted Saturday, 15 January 2000


The electors of Bundamba and Woodridge go to the polls this Saturday in an election which will provide a mid-term check on the health of the Beattie Government.

It will also give some clues to the Liberal Party's recovery from its injuries of the last election and whether either the City Country Alliance or One Nation has a pulse.

The following tables have been supplied by David Fraser. The graphs were generated from them.

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Readers are invited to make their own predictions of the result and email them to the editor before close of polling Saturday 5th February.  The neatest most correct entry may receive a prize.

Bundamba/Wolston

First Preferences (%)

Two-Party Votes (%)

ALP

Lib

NP

ALP 2 Party

Lib/Nat 2 Party

1977

58.2

24.8

17

60.6

39.4

1980

59.4

23.8

16.8

61.2

38.8

1983

64.3

35.7

64.3

38.8

1986

56.6

24.4

19

57.8

42.2

1989

66.9

33.1

66.9

33.1

1992

69.8

69.8

30.2

1995

58.1

24.5

64.8

35.2

1998

48.2

11.9

66.2

33.8

(Notional)

 

 

Woodridge

First Preferences (%)

Two-Party Votes (%)

ALP

Lib

NP

ALP 2 Party

Lib/Nat 2 Party

1977

49.4

32.9

13.3

54.1

45.9

1980

46.3

35

56.4

43.6

1983

48.9

9.4

33.6

55

45

1986

52.3

12.6

22.7

61.1

38.9

1989

68.7

20

11.2

69.5

30.5

1992

66.2

16.2

75.2

24.8

1995

61.6

25.5

68.1

31.9

1998

51.7

14

67.3

32.7

(Notional)

 

 

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Notes:

  1. Results in 1977, 1986 and 1992 occurred after a redistribution.
  2. Two Party Preferred results in 1998 are notional because One Nation ran second in these seats, not the coalition. The result has been adjusted using assumptions about how the One Nation vote would have been redistributed rather than the Liberal Party vote.
  3. One Nation's first preference vote in Bundamba in 1998 was 34.26%, and it received 43.8% of the two party preferred vote.
  4. One Nation's first preference vote in Woodridge in 1998 was 28.39%, and it received 36.5% of the two party preferred vote.
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About the Author

David Fraser is a former State Director of the Queensland Division of the Liberal Party and a member of State Executive between 1994 and 1996.

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