Winning government from opposition: has Colin Barnett got a clue?

Maybe he was influenced by his poor personal profile, but who had heard of Steve Bracks before he became premier? Maybe he wanted to look tough and decisive, but who would have described Bob Carr with those terms in opposition? The local Westpoll shows that over the week that Barnett announced his canal scheme, a Coalition lead in the polls turned into a Labor lead and, perhaps more prophetically, the bookmakers swapped Gallop for Barnett as favourite to win the election. (Those bookies always seem to be the best predictors of election outcomes.)

The irony for Barnett is that the public might just like his canal idea, as this item from The West Australian February 10 shows. But that is not the point. The trend is for voters to increasingly vote on issues that affect them personally: law and order, security, education, hospitals, the economy. More, we are becoming pragmatists, and less, dreamers.

It is not for me to predict who will win the WA election on February 26. We in the east are just too far away from the local issues and personalities. Certainly Geoff Gallop has not used his first term, as Bracks, Carr, Bacon and Beattie did, to shore up voter support. It has to be a very bad government not to receive a second term, so the fact that Barnett has a chance at all is an indication of the hash Gallop has made of things. He too has not learned from history.

But it seems that if Barnett does win it will be despite his campaign tactics and not because of them. The key to winning from opposition is not to scare the horses. Yes, you need ideas and policies, you need good candidates, and you need to listen. Most of all, though, your leader needs to be seen as a capable alternative who won’t break the bank or frighten the children.

These are good economic times and Australians are petrified that one-day it may come crashing down around them. This makes them hard-nosed and self-obsessed, and certainly not about to punt on a flaky opposition. The last thing they are looking for is a messiah: just ask Mark Latham.