Return of the big bad Russian bear

As Berman points out, the US's new emphasis on Central Asia and the Caucasus as part of the global war against terrorism is drawing a strong Russian response. In Uzbekistan, Russia has negotiated an agreement that effectively puts Moscow in charge of much of Tashkent's military policy. Last year, the Russian military opened its first foreign base since the fall of the Soviet Union, in Kyrgyzstan.

This year, Tajikistan granted Moscow military basing rights "on a free of charge and open-ended basis". Russia and Kazakhstan have also inaugurated a joint action plan for security co-operation.

In the Caucasus, Russia has negotiated the use of military bases in Armenia. Moscow continues to foment separatist tendencies within Georgia and has threatened to cease gas supplies to Azerbaijan.

In June, Moscow commenced large-scale military exercises - called Mobility 2004 - with a clear signal to its neighbours that it possesses the will and firepower to project force. The Russian Foreign Ministry said they were intended to demonstrate that "any place is within our reach".

So, how did we get to this remove? Not all of it can be levelled at a paranoid Russia. Had the West mounted a serious attempt to aid Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, we might have had a better chance of a democratic Russia. Instead, Washington was intent on never allowing Russia to emerge again as a major power. The expansion of NATO up to the Russian borders, including basing NATO planes in Lithuania, NATO activity in the Caucasus, and the prospect of the Ukraine joining the EU and NATO, may turn out to be a fatal step in the history of the 21st century.

President Putin has made it clear that Moscow should not allow this erosion of Russia's geopolitical space. The Chief of the Russian General Staff has written: "A powerful military stationed at our borders with no declared objective poses a threat to any non-NATO country. Sensible leaders would realise this and prepare to counter the threat."

The problem is that Russia, after 400 years of autocracy, has never felt its independence threatened in this way before from European hegemony. The forthcoming elections in Ukraine may just provide Moscow with the pretext it requires to assert control over what it sees as vital geopolitical space.