Viewed from Kurdistan the future for Iraq is most likely partition

The Future

What the future holds for Iraq is unclear. What is clear, is bringing stability to Iraq will take much longer than first anticipated. Crucially, due to the volatile (and at times explosive) mix of the Iraqi population, there is no guarantee of peace and harmony. The possibility of an Iraqi civil war may soon become a question of “when” and not “if”. The numerous hot items on the table will not be resolved without someone getting their hands burnt. What is evident is that all parties want to handle the hot item for their maximum benefit without feeling its heat – which is not possible. We have already witnessed that compromise in Iraq is a scarce commodity. Who essentially loses out is key. Either way such losses will ultimately lead to what’s becoming increasingly predictable - Iraq’s disintegration.

One has to ask if the break up of Iraq is actually a bad thing.

There are growing voices that the only solution is for the Kurds, Sunni and Shia to buy separate houses and no longer reside under the same roof. This is a natural human reaction: if you do not get on with your housemate or landlord, it is simple, you move out. In this analogy, in a future Iraq, the landlord will essentially be the Shia, how they treat the Kurd and Sunni minority is crucial. Ultimately, the conflict of interests will prove too much leading to the partitioning of Iraq into three distinct states.

A Kurdish state will, for one, cause uproar in Iran, Syria and particularly Turkey. However this is now becoming an inevitability; many feel it is no longer a question of whether an independent Kurdistan will be established. The climate of the Middle East is changing and Kurds will no longer be fearful or suppressed into following the will of the millions. In the short term at least the Kurdish, Sunni and Shia states will be susceptible to influence and external pressure, from the obvious sources. A Shia state will be heavily influenced by the Iranian theocracy; the Sunni’s by Syria and possibly Turkey; and Kurdistan will have to deal with hostility at every turn with its newly created and landlocked territory.

Violence and bloodshed is never a good thing, however, Iraqis must now use the current mess and mass grieving to map a prosperous future for Iraq. If this does not occur then Iraq will experience greater bloodshed, whether now or in the future.