From a respected hegemon to a drifting power

Donald Trump did not invent America's vulnerabilities, but he has driven them to a breaking point. His contempt for democratic norms, alliances, and international law has transformed the United States from an anchor of a rules based order into a disruptive force. The damage extends far beyond decisions like the war on Iran, stretching the credibility of US institutions, Western cohesion, and the balance of power with adversaries sensing opportunity.

From a Respected Hegemon to a Drifting Power

Trump's presidency has not merely shaken the postwar order; it has exposed how far the United States has drifted from a benevolent superpower to an unruly one. His contempt for alliances, law, and norms, and readiness to dramatically disrupt the world's order includes his war of choice against Iran, which has proven to be disastrous to the global trade in oil and gas. His attempt to seize Greenland alarmingly soured US relations with its closest allies in Europe, and his abduction of Venezuela's leader raised serious concerns about the US' bullying throughout Latin America. Together, they have shattered the image of US responsibility and leadership that has been built since 1945, reflecting a decay in legitimacy, capability, and purpose.

The deepest damage lies in the erosion of US legitimacy as an agent of a rules based order. For decades, Washington could press allies toward difficult decisions, trusting that it ultimately sought broader stability. Trump's impulsive, law-indifferent use of power-of which Iran is one example-is now seen as erratic. US legitimacy has eroded, and even necessary initiatives meet suspicion and resistance.

Trump's "America First" protectionism has weakened the trade and financial system that once amplified US power. Tariff wars, sweeping sanctions, and disdain for institutions like the WTO and NATO have accelerated efforts to move away from the dollar and US-centered systems. An alternative financial architecture is emerging in which Washington can no longer easily weaponize access to capital, technology, or markets.

This is compounded by visible democratic backsliding. Trump's assaults on the rule of law, delegitimization of elections, and contempt for the press have made US politics a cautionary tale. When the self styled leader of the free world cannot guarantee electoral integrity, its advocacy of democracy abroad rings hollow.

A Ruptured West

Nowhere are the consequences clearer than in US European relations. Canadian Prime Minister Carney's description of a permanent "rupture" reflects a growing belief that the transatlantic relationship may never return to its pre Trump form. For many Europeans, Trump's tenure is not an aberration but proof that American extremism can recur, especially after his re-election. Trust, once broken so deeply, is not easily restored.

Europe is therefore moving toward strategic autonomy. In defense, this means building capabilities no longer dependent on the "whims" of a US president. In energy and technology, it means diversifying suppliers and shielding economies from American sanctions and regulatory pressure. The more Europe acts independently, the less leverage Washington retains.

A cooler transatlantic relationship risks parallel systems. Europe is already a regulatory superpower in digital markets and data protection. A sustained rupture could push Brussels to align elsewhere or act independently, complicating US standard-setting. Diverging approaches to sanctions, technology, and climate policy would weaken collective Western responses, benefiting Moscow and Beijing.

Adversaries on the Offensive

For Russia and China, Trump's presidency signals a reckless, declining hegemon. They present themselves as defenders of a "multipolar" order against US unilateralism, portraying American actions as threats to sovereignty and stability-an argument gaining traction across the Global South.