One Nation and coalitions

Many people on the anti-Labor side of politics believe the only way to remove Labor from government is for the Liberal Party and Nationals to work with One Nation. They insist that a coalition between the three is essential if conservative parties want to defeat what they see as a high-taxing, high-spending government.

At the same time, senior Liberal figures continue to publicly reject the idea, saying they would "never ever" form a coalition with One Nation. The Nationals have also shown little enthusiasm. This leaves many voters wondering what is really possible.

Coalitions are actually very common in parliamentary democracies around the world. In countries that use proportional representation, such as many in Europe and Israel, single-party governments are rare. Most governments are made up of at least two parties working together.

New Zealand, for example, is currently governed by a coalition involving National, ACT and New Zealand First. NZ First insisted on policy shifts on issues such as immigration as a condition of joining the coalition.

The government of Israel is comprised of a coalition of five parties. One of them, Shas, insisted on military service exemptions for yeshiva students (ie those in full-time religious study).

In the Netherlands, three parties currently form a minority government. A previous coalition member, PVV (led by Geert Wilders), demanded strict asylum/migration controls, border closures, and deportations as a condition of entering.

In Sweden, the coalition government is comprised of three parties. However, its survival relies on the support of a fourth party, with that support subject to strict immigration reforms, a tougher path to citizenship, deporting non-citizen criminals, a crackdown on gangs, closer inspection of religious schools, capping welfare benefits, limiting non-citizen access to welfare, a reduction in fuel taxes, and expansion of nuclear generation.

Our experience with coalitions in Australia is different, based on the long-running Liberal–National coalition. That has led many to assume coalition agreements must be negotiated before an election and should offer a shared policy platform.

In fact, that is not how most coalitions are formed internationally. More often, parties contest elections independently and negotiate afterwards, once the final numbers are known. Each party focuses on winning as many seats as possible. Only after the election do discussions begin about whether they can work together to form government.

Coalitions also come in different forms. Some involve sharing ministerial positions, as happens with the Liberals and Nationals. Others are more limited arrangements. A minor party may simply agree to support the government on key votes, or guarantee "confidence and supply" - meaning it will support the government in no-confidence motions and budget votes – as is the case in Sweden.

It makes no political sense for the Liberals, Nationals and One Nation to announce a coalition before the next election, due in 2028. Any such announcement would inevitably become a major political target for Labor and its supporters, distracting attention from the policies that each party seeks to promote.

It would also exclude other minor parties that might win seats and help achieve a non-Labor majority.