Will the Xi Jinping era come to a quiet end?

The impression given to readers is that Xi Jinping's political position remains unchanged - he is still the "core" of the Party, and his authority must be safeguarded.

The "heavyweight" commentary was authored by Justin Yifu Lin: "Xi Jinping Economic Thought Is a Scientific Theory Rooted in China, Looking to the World, and Leading the Future (In-depth Study and Implementation of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era · Experts Discuss Volume I of Selected Works of Xi Jinping on the Economy)". The article claimed that "Xi Jinping Economic Thought inherits and develops Marxist political economy," and that "with a new vision it deepens the understanding of the laws of Communist Party rule, socialist construction, and human social development, thereby forming Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era."

Such extreme flattery, wholly ignoring the fact that China's economy is mired in a profound crisis, is clearly a commissioned piece. The experts involved not only received generous remuneration but also enjoyed high-level political treatment. The purpose of publishing such an article at this moment is obvious: during the Beidaihe closed-door talks, it seeks to generate momentum for the narrative that Xi's political status is unshakable.

The articles from the PLA Daily and the People's Daily clearly represent two opposing political camps. As the saying goes, "When scholars meet soldiers, reason cannot prevail." Yet today we see the opposite: the soldiers are speaking of "knowing shame, so as not to lose dignity," while the Party's court intellectuals serve as cheerleaders for an autocratic ruler.

But what if the soldiers, too, abandon reason and instead voice their opinions through the barrel of a gun - just as was done when dealing with the Gang of Four? What consequences would follow? Perhaps only then would the authoritarian ruler finally realize what it means to align with the will and the heart of the people. A monarch without control of the gun is a monarch whose crown can be taken away at any moment.

After last year's Third Plenary Session, rumors proliferated and various political anomalies emerged. Xi Jinping primarily appeared at Party affairs events, while Li Qiang increasingly took the stage normally reserved for the Premier. Other Standing Committee members also began appearing more frequently in autonomous forums. Particularly after the reshuffle of the Organization Department head, appointments of provincial- and ministerial-level officials began to include individuals from different factional backgrounds. This reflected, prior to Xi's full consolidation of power, a "broad-based" principle in personnel management - preventing any single faction from dominating.

It is widely believed that intervention by the military and Party elders led to what could be described as a "silent coup." Although the overall trend may be irreversible, how Xi is ultimately accommodated and evaluated remains uncertain.

Three possibilities exist:

• The outcome most people hope for: Xi fully retires at the October Fourth Plenary Session, some Standing Committee members are replaced, reformist factions take the lead in the Politburo, and China's political, economic, and international landscape is reshaped.
• Xi remains in office temporarily but must accept an internal resolution without reversal. The current Standing Committee remains largely unchanged until the 21st Party Congress. A consensus is reached between the Standing Committee and Party elders to finalize the next Standing Committee lineup and to select the next General Secretary and Premier through mutual agreement. A key internal consensus would also be that no one may serve more than two terms in the future, with any constitutional amendments handled by the next National People's Congress to correct institutional loopholes.
• Xi continues to influence the Beidaihe closed-door talks, willing to relinquish some power but retaining a central position after the 21st Party Congress, acting as a spiritual leader of the Party and state, using his "thought" to guide the decisions and governance of the next central leadership collective.

My judgment is that the second scenario is the most likely. If Xi insists, it may be to retain the honorary title of State Chairman and prolong his political life as much as possible. Some believe he will insist on retaining the position of Chairman of the Central Military Commission-this remains a red line. If the military allows Xi to regain control over the armed forces, the combined efforts of the elders and the military to check Xi over the past year would be nullified.