The great superiority delusion

In a survey undertaken in the US in 2014, 55 per cent of respondents said they were smarter than average, 4 per cent thought they were less intelligent, while 34 per cent said that they were about average.

Those with higher levels of educational attainment were convinced they were smarter, with 75 per cent of college graduates and 83 per cent with post-graduate degrees claiming to be more intelligent. In fact, 51 per cent of the latter said they were "much more intelligent" than the average American.

The same survey in Australia would yield comparable results; indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if the percentages claiming to be smarter than average were higher. A great many people assume other people, overall, are rather stupid.

But clearly there is a problem. It is simply not possible for more than half a population to be above average. Quite a lot of people are kidding themselves. And if they have academic qualifications, many are really having themselves on.

Psychologists describe this phenomenon as "illusory superiority", in which a person overestimates his or her own qualities and abilities in relation to the same qualities and abilities of others. It is found in many aspects of life including school performance, popularity, driving skills and desirable personality traits (such as honesty, generosity or confidence).

It explains a lot of stock market trading (each trader thinks they are the best and most likely to succeed) as well as the number of lawsuits that go to trial (because, due to illusory superiority, many lawyers have an inflated belief that they will win a case). It also explains criminals who assume they are too smart to be caught, and police who regard the public as generally pretty stupid.

The Senate nanny state inquiry that I chaired was regularly asked why nanny state thinking is so pervasive. I found I could partly explain its history (it has origins in the temperance movement), why it is a problem (because it treats adults like children), and how pervasive it has become (there are endless examples). However, it was only when I considered it in the context of illusory superiority that I started to recognise its cause.

The nanny state is a product of illusory superiority. Policy makers and those with influence, convinced they are more intelligent than average, believe the people "out there" not only deserve the benefit of their intelligence, but should be obliged to cooperate for their own good.

Thus we have government policies on such things as bicycle helmets, smoking, drinking, gambling, diet, and even crossing the road, where the law mandates certain behaviour. These policies are not intended to protect others, but to save us from ourselves. During Covid we had public servants imposing horrendous restrictions on us, often for the same reason.

When we look closely at the groups lobbying for nanny state policies, it is easier to understand. Without exception they comprise people with academic qualifications, often post-graduate. Quite a few are located in or associated with universities, and many of their personnel are academics.

Among the most obvious are the Australian Health Promotion Association, the Public Health Association, the Foundation for Alcohol Research and Education, elements of the media, obsessive compulsives who dominate the anti-smoking lobby, and of course certain doctor groups which seem to think they have the answer to everything. In each case they are led by individuals with substantial academic qualifications.

On the other hand, I am not aware of ever hearing a tradesman or trade organisation trying to tell me what's good for me, despite them probably knowing quite a bit about personal safety. Tradesmen, in my experience, rarely think they are smarter than average even when they are.

Indeed, the evidence indicates those who are genuinely smarter than average often harbour doubts about themselves and are very cautious about giving advice to others, let alone seeking to impose their views. By far the most dangerous people are those who are below average but do not recognise it.

What they need is a very large dose of humility. Even if we are as smart as we think, that is no reason to try to tell others how to live. Nobody is that smart.