Selling renewables – a marketer's dream

If you follow energy news in Australia you will appreciate the strength of our devotion to renewable energy. The primary measure is in the ballot box. For years we've been voting for governments at every level that enthusiastically support ambitious clean energy growth policies and a coming "clean energy transition". Out with those grubby fossil fuels, in with clean green renewables!

There are some specific renewables technology preferences. Google it, and an AI summary of Australia's energy policy will soon confirm "that a large majority of Australians favour a shift towards renewable energy sources, with solar and wind frequently cited as the preferred renewable energy options".

The enthusiasm for renewables starts at the top. Our Prime Minister consistently declares his faith in an "82% renewables target" by 2030 (whatever that means). One step down, his Minister for Climate Change and Energy, the Hon Chris Bowen MP, regularly delivers messages about our renewables strength. Australia is a "renewable energy superpower", rich in energy from wind and sun. Aided by energy storage in batteries and hydroelectric dams, renewables will provide us with a clean, green, electricity supply as reliable as we've always expected.

What's more, renewables are the "cheapest and fastest" option. And there will be plenty of surplus to export to a grateful world, especially via the medium of electrochemically synthesised Green Hydrogen (which should make an electrochemist like me very proud but doesn't).

It's not just the politicians and their bureaucrats. There's a whole renewables industry enthusiastically enhancing the buoyant national outlook. Their public faces, like the Clean Energy Council and the website RenewEconomy ("since 2012, Australia's best informed, most respected most read website focusing on the green energy transition") show obvious delight in reporting good news on renewables, record-breaking renewables performance, and attractive imagery of shiny new solar, wind and battery installations.

Governments, voters and an industry all on side! Surely a marketer's paradise. What could go wrong?

You have to look hard to find any clues. There's the occasional sceptic. Here in On Line Opinion there was recently a chilling tale of the effects of "cold windless evenings" on renewable energy supplies. Also, criticisms of rising electricity prices surface regularly. And our rural population often mourns the defilement of their countryside by large solar and wind farms and associated transmission lines.

But these blows land softly. It's hard to see how such objections can derail the reputation and progress of the renewables behemoth.

That might change with evidence mounting that today's clean energy plan is simply not working. The combined outputs of solar and wind energy are growing much too slowly to meet government and voters' expectations. Without an increase it could take 60 years or more to reach the target output level.

You haven't heard? Why no outcry? How is that possible?

My theory is that the marketer's paradise, a product of collusion, deception and wishful thinking in Australian energy politics, has led to a cosy relationship between governments, the renewables industry and a range of dedicated advocates in institutions, the media, and the energy industry, as well as in universities and other professional bodies such as CSIRO. These have lost any interest in, or capacity for, critical thinking on the subject. Good news stories are boosted, bad news played down. And the traditional ignorance and lack of rigour about electrical energy quantities means that renewables advocates can say what they like about growth without fear of correction.

My earlier evidence rested on a seven-year set of energy data rigorously formulated to give the true picture of Australia's solar/wind clean energy growth. Now another year's growth, for 2024, has been published, in the 74^th edition of the respected Statistical Review of World Energy. It is included in the updated table below. The key numbers showing total growth of solar/wind energy over each calendar year are in the bottom row.