Kosovo faces unprecedented challenges under Trump

Not since declaring its independence in 2008 will Kosovo face as many daunting challenges at home and abroad as it will over the next four years. The new coalition government will face several significant challenges due to Donald Trump's return to power and the shifting political landscape in Europe. In this complex geopolitical environment, Kosovo's new government will need to balance its domestic priorities with the evolving expectations of its international partners, particularly as it navigates the shifting dynamics between the US, the EU, and Russia.

Strained relations with the United States

The geopolitical landscape of the Western Balkans, particularly the relationship between Kosovo and Serbia, has long been a central point of international diplomacy. With Trump's return to power, many analysts and regional stakeholders have dissected numerous emerging signals to gauge how Trump might act in connection with the Serbia-Kosovo conflict. Drawing from his first term in office, his unconventional diplomatic approaches and statements from key appointees will determine the likely trajectory of the Trump administration's engagement in the coming days.

Given Trump's perceived closeness to Putin, Serbian President Vucic's open support of Trump's re-election campaign, Trump's business interests in Serbia, and his appointment of Richard Grenell, who criticized Kurti in the past, as a special presidential envoy, Trump will likely exert greater pressure on Kosovo than on Serbia in his efforts to mitigate the Kosovo-Serbia conflict.

The new Kosovo government will need to navigate what will undoubtedly be an intricate relationship with the Trump administration. Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy could potentially reduce political support for Kosovo if it does not agree to make certain concessions in negotiations with Serbia. Trump unconventionally seeks a quick resolution to any conflict, regardless of its complexity.

The central theme of Trump's first-term policy toward Kosovo and Serbia was the Washington Agreement of September 2020. It entailed a dual-track framework prioritizing economic cooperation while circumventing Serbia's adamant refusal to recognize Kosovo's independence. The agreement focused on infrastructure projects, which included rail and highway links, and a mutual commitment to stop lobbying against each other's international recognition. However, the deal lacked enforcement mechanisms and failed to address core political disputes between the two countries.

The Grenell factor

Trump's reappointment of Grenell raised new concerns in Pristina because, during his first tenure, Grenell developed close relations with VuÄÂÂić and publicly criticized Kurti, whom he labeled "unreliable," while promoting Serbia's interests. In 2023, Grenell received Serbia's Order of the Flag, a gesture stressing the importance of his perceived alignment with Belgrade. There is a legitimate concern that Grenell might again sideline Kosovo's sovereignty and instead try to leverage economic incentives to extract concessions. This was evident in February 2025, when Grenell publicly dismissed Kurti's assertion of strong US-Kosovo relations as "delusional."

Serbia's advantages

As Vucic surveys Trump's favoritism toward Serbia with glee, he is positioning himself to take full advantage of Serbia's strengthened status, offering to host a Trump-Putin summit. Additionally, Vucic wants to portray Serbia as a regional economic hub, which appeals to Trump, who prefers "deal-making" over human rights. Knowing Trump's unscrupulous approach in the way he transacts, he may condition further economic aid and military support to Kosovo only if it complies with Serbian demands, including ending all efforts to join international organizations (which Vucic had initially agreed not to block).

This poses significant risks to Kosovo because by prioritizing economic incentives over democratic principles, Trump is inadvertently strengthening authoritarian leaders such as Vucic, who promise short-term stability but aggravate long-term ethnic tensions. Given Trump's unpredictability, however, Serbia's overreliance on him could potentially render it more vulnerable should Trump change his priorities. Vucic must navigate the shifting dynamics between the US, the EU, Russia, and China, especially if Trump demands that Serbia reduce ties with China.

Reviving the Land Swap Idea

Another concern is that Trump may revive the idea, first proposed in 2018, of a land swap, which is highly contentious and will have destabilizing effects. The plan envisions adjusting the border to correspond to the ethnic majority, which de facto translates to rewarding Serbia's expansionist ambitions. The European Council on Foreign Relations warns that the proposal could provoke new violence and legitimize ethnonationalist borders, particularly regarding Kosovo's northern Serb-majority municipalities, which would fracture Kosovo's territorial integrity and potentially create a dangerous precedent for other states in the region.

Security concerns

Maintaining stability and security will be a key challenge. Potential changes in NATO's security role, the uncertainty of US security guarantees in the region, the ongoing tensions in northern Kosovo, the risk of increased Russian influence in the Western Balkans, and Trump's potential withdrawal of the American presence in KFOR in Kosovo due to his desire to slash American military spending will all contribute to the security challenges the new government will face. While a full US withdrawal is unlikely, reduced troop commitments could embolden Serbian provocations. Kosovo's security partnership with Turkey offers a partial barrier, but regional conflicts would stretch Ankara's already-thin resources.

Working closely with the EU

It is hard to exaggerate how critically important it is for the new prime minister to work very closely with the EU, especially now that Trump has clearly shown that he favors Putin over America's traditional allies. It is central that the EU and Pristina agree to iron out their differences; there must be no daylight between them. The EU expects tangible progress in the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue and views a resolution to the Serb-majority municipalities issue as a must to reduce the tension between Belgrade and Pristina and help to prevent Russia from making inroads in the Balkans.