Is the Russia-Ukraine war stopping or continuing?

Zelensky arrived at the White House, where Trump personally greeted him at the entrance. The Russia-Ukraine war seemed to have taken a crucial step toward peace.

However, during the White House meeting, an astonishing and explosive argument broke out in the Oval Office between Trump, Zelensky, and JD Vance, right in front of onlookers. Trump criticized Zelensky for gambling on World War III, leading to a breakdown in the talks. Zelensky left the White House empty-handed, and Trump also failed to reach an agreement or sign a deal that could have moved the war toward a ceasefire and real peace.

Clearly, Zelensky did not intend to end the war. He demanded "justice" and sought to continue the fight with the support of the international community, especially the United States, in order to defeat Putin and reclaim all lost territories, including Crimea.

Three years ago, this war was initiated by Putin's Russia. However, Putin found himself up against a tough opponent in Zelensky, turning what was meant to be a swift "special military operation" into a prolonged war of attrition. Putin must deeply regret his decision, but since he started this fight, he has no choice but to continue it through.

In essence, this war is a proxy conflict. While Putin was the initiator, the one fuelling the fire was the United States. The Democratic administration in the US wanted this war, and Zelensky seized the moment, demonstrating personal courage and portraying himself as a fearless hero. The US and NATO neither want Putin to win nor wish for Zelensky to advance all the way to Moscow, as they remain highly cautious of Russia's nuclear deterrence. Clearly, the pace of the war has been dictated by Biden's political needs, aiming to secure an advantage in the 2024 US presidential election and remain in the White House.

Putin is clearly waiting for Trump to return to the White House, as only Trump's comeback offers him a possible escape from the quagmire of the Russia-Ukraine war. When Putin launched the war against Ukraine three years ago, he certainly did not anticipate the situation unfolding as it has. He must regret falling into the Democratic Party's strategic trap to weaken Russia through prolonged attrition, as well as becoming a pawn in Xi Jinping's game. If Trump extends an olive branch, Putin's best move would be to seize the opportunity and extract himself from this crisis.

Trump is making bold and sweeping changes to reshape America and achieve his goal of making the country great again, while also seeking to redefine the global order. He faces two major battles-one internal, against the ideological resistance of America's European "freeloaders," and one external, a full-scale political, economic, and military confrontation, possibly even war, with a rising Eastern power.

Following the Chinese strategic principle of "stabilizing internal affairs before dealing with external threats," Trump would need Putin's cooperation in managing ideological conflicts within the Western democratic bloc. At the same time, in his confrontation with the powerful Eastern nation backed by US policies over the years, Trump would benefit from driving a wedge between Putin and Beijing. Only by ensuring that Putin does not remain tightly bound to China can Trump secure a decisive victory in this geopolitical struggle.

In Trump's mind, Putin is preferable to Zelensky. Trump and Putin share a certain mutual understanding and admiration. During Trump's first term, he was plagued by the baseless "Russia collusion" scandal, while Putin silently took the fall for him. On the other hand, Zelensky played a behind-the-scenes role in assisting Biden during the "Hunter Biden laptop" controversy. As the 2024 presidential race heated up, Zelensky even endorsed Kamala Harris, further fueling Trump's resentment and disdain for him.

Trump, above all, is a businessman-one who values deals and understands contracts. His approach to governance is deeply influenced by commercial pragmatism, setting him apart from traditional career politicians. Every agreement and policy he crafts can be linked to economic interests.

When it comes to resolving the Russia-Ukraine war and achieving a ceasefire, Trump's strategy would be a masterstroke of political and business acumen. It would allow Putin to withdraw from the war without facing moral condemnation or a humiliating defeat. At the same time, Ukraine could preserve its statehood and prevent further unnecessary loss of life in a war it cannot win. The US would also be able to recoup some of its massive war expenditures, while Europe would be compelled to take responsibility for its own defense rather than relying solely on American support.

This would be a classic "kill multiple birds with one stone" scenario-one that only a businessman-turned-president like Trump could orchestrate, blending political resolution with economic leverage in a way that career politicians never could.

Trump's unique approach lies in his ability to envision a future filled with towering skyscrapers and economic prosperity-even in a war-torn region like Gaza. His "Trump Gold Card" policy, a pro-business initiative, is another example of his pragmatic approach, though it seems to be inspired by Australia's immigration policies.

When Ukraine's 2023 spring counteroffensive failed, the logical next step should have been peace negotiations. However, Europe and the Biden administration never prioritized Ukrainian lives. Instead, the West used the war for its own geopolitical and economic gains, actively preventing peace talks from materializing.

Zelensky's ambition to reclaim Crimea is understandable, but such an effort requires substantial military strength. Historically, Crimea's integration into Ukraine was largely due to Khrushchev's personal ties to the region-having moved to Donbas in 1908 and later living and working in Ukraine for many years. It was under his leadership that Crimea was transferred to Ukraine in 1954.

Trump wants the war to end and to stop the loss of lives-whether Ukrainian or Russian. Putin, exhausted by the prolonged conflict, likely has little remaining will to fight; all he needs is a dignified exit. Trump's return to the White House would offer him precisely that opportunity.

In contrast, Zelensky remains determined to fight to the last moment for Ukraine's territorial integrity. However, his ability to do so hinges entirely on US support. If the White House changes hands and the pro-Ukraine Democratic administration exits, Zelensky's position weakens significantly. His heated clash with Trump during his White House visit could further jeopardize American aid, potentially reducing it to nothing.

Nevertheless, Trump, ever the dealmaker, reportedly reassured Zelensky generously afterward: "You have only one card to play-the US Come back when you're ready, and I'll deal you in again."

In the end, the most likely outcome is that, after exhausting all other options and finding no alternative support, Zelensky will be forced to return to Trump's ceasefire proposal.