Why Southeast Asia will stand up to Trump

Donald Trump's presidential victory has generated a frenzy of commentary on global geopolitics and geoeconomics unlike any previous election. For a start, leaders critical or contemptuous of Trump have had not only to swallow their pride. Many have now publicly retracted their earlier opinions and started to eat crow.  

Possibly the most striking example is Australia’s former Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, currently Australia’s Ambassador to the United States. In 2020, Rudd condemned Trump as the “most destructive president in history” while in 2022 he denounced Trump as a “traitor to the West” for praising Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Immediately after Trump’s victory, Rudd purged his personal and social media accounts of his anti-Trump posts - an action which Peter Dutton, Australia’s opposition leader responded to by predicting that Rudd would follow up with further attempts to ingratiate himself with the new government.

He’ll be down at the tie shop, he’d be buying up red ties, he’d be buying red hats, he’ll be ordering those MAGA hats. He will do everything he can to ingratiate himself with the Trump campaign. So he’s indefatigable, as we know.

None of the leaders in the Association of Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN) are likely to engage in the brown nosing and submissive behaviour that we are seeing from allies of the US - including from the Asian Pacific region - in their efforts to apple-polish Trump and his incoming administration, and to curry favour.

What Southeast Asians really think of the US 

Not only is there no need for ASEAN leaders to buy MAGA merchandise especially submarines and missile systems or to ingratiate themselves further with the new US president, there is every reason we can expect ASEAN member countries and leaders to uphold the organisation’s independent and non aligned principles in the tumultuous era that lies ahead.

An important marker for ASEAN’s foreign policy stance for the next four years has already been established by Prime Minister, Anwar Ibrahim. While congratulating Trump on his remarkable comeback victory, Anwar  expressed the hope that Trump’s victory would bring positive changes in geopolitics, particularly to end the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.

We will welcome any positive stance by the United States towards peace, particularly efforts to halt Israel's violent attacks on Gaza and to acknowledge the legitimate and inalienable rights of the Palestinian people.

This call by Malaysia as the incoming chair of ASEAN in 2025 for the new US administration to change its war-oriented ideological position pursued by the Biden administration, and presently playing out in respect to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine and elsewhere where earlier presidents have sought to reinforce American dominance, should not be regarded as unrealistic or futile.

Although criticised by western liberal media and think-tanks for his unpredictable ways and combustible foreign policy, Trump previously undertook an unprecedented peace initiative in dealing with North Korea and its leader Kim Jong Un.

During his recent campaign Trump repeatedly promised to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. It is equally possible that he will do the same in Gaza if there is strong and sustained pressure from his western allies and the rest of the world.

Standing up for ASEAN’s core principles means standing up for regional peace and security. This is a position which Trump, even if he disagrees with it, can and should be willing to live with. Despite his election rhetoric of making America great again, he is ultimately a businessman, a transaction wheeler dealer and realist with bigger concerns and issues to deal with in the United States, America, Europe, the Middle East and China. Draining the deep state and Capital Hill swamp may well take up most of his time and be his biggest challenge. ASEAN will be relatively low and unimportant in his agenda.

At the same time the reality for Trump’s hawkish foreign policy advisers is that ASEAN is a regional force that needs to be given due respect. With a larger population than North America’s, ASEAN is a middle level power in geopolitics but it is one of the world’s most diverse, fastest growing and competitive economic regions. The combined gross domestic product of US$3.8 trillion makes ASEAN the fifth largest economy in the world. During the period 2013-2022, ASEAN’s economy grew at an annual rate of 4.2% and is expected to grow just as or more strongly in the coming decade. Should Trump want a stronger counterweight to China, he will need ASEAN to be on his side.

The reality is also that should Trump want to restore the US to a more respectable standing in this part of the world, he has to begin with the recognition that many in ASEAN - possibly the great majority of the population - do not see the US as a role model for democracy, freedom, human rights and as a force for peace. This representation is regarded by most people - including Americans - as a hollow claim though ceaselessly propagandised by the western military-industrial-media complex.

The prevailing dark view of the US in Southeast Asia is well founded. It is not only because of the recent history of its military campaign in Vietnam which spilled over into Laos and Cambodia and killed more than a million of the Indochinese population. It is also due to the US’s war record in the Middle East and elsewhere and its support of the Israeli genocidal war in Gaza which has adversely affected Muslim as well as other non-western opinions of the US.

Alignment Preference of Southeast Asians

With regard to China which the Biden administration assessed as America's greatest geopolitical and geoeconomic rival, a recent survey of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute found that over half of Southeast Asians preferred alignment with China over the US. Its polling sample included respondents from the public and private sector, and researchers and academics who are in a position to influence policy.

If the poll numbers from the Philippines, the most pro-American among ASEAN nations because of its history and the large population of Filipinos with relatives in the US or dependent for their livelihood on US military bases in the Philippines, are discounted, the finding would be more lopsided in favour of China. Policy advisers of President Trump will do well to point out to him that more than 40% of the population of Southeast Asia is Muslim.

The way for Trump to make America better - great is in many ways a hopeless ambition - is to focus on dealing with the domestic issues that divide US society. It is not to engage in efforts to enforce the primacy of a nation whose preeminent standing in the world has been irretrievably lost.  Trump’s exclusion of Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo, well known war hawks, in his new administration is a hopeful sign that he may, against all expectations, help build a peace-oriented road for the US in its foreign policy to embellish his place in history.