Why BRICS will be the death knell of ASEAN

With the BRICS meetings in Kazan, Russia now over, and four ASEAN states are firmly on the waiting list to join, the relevance of ASEAN is clearly on the wane. It's not just because the aims and objectives of BRICS are superseding the visions of ASEAN, where ASEAN's basic premises have become irrelevant overtime.

ASEAN was conceived and eventually formed by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand 57 years ago in the midst of the Cold War. ASEAN was an intergovernmental framework to promote regional peace and stability, through respect for the rule of law, and adherence to the principles under the United Nations Charter.

Externally, ASEAN was intended to halt communist expansion in South-East Asia, while at the same time forging much greater intra-member cooperation, which hardly existed before the formation of ASEAN.

However, the very weakness of ASEAN lies in its organizational ambition to overcome differences through goodwill and understanding, faith, patience, perseverance, and realism. The result of this has been the inertia to do nothing because respective governments have been focused inward towards their own issues of governance. ASEAN nations have agreed to non-interference in the internal affairs of other members. This has primarily led to silence over Myanmar. There has been no ASEAN approach taken towards the plight of the Rohingya people, and the ASEAN relationship did not stop Cambodia-Thai conflict at Preah Vihear in 2008-2009.

Many pundits have mistakenly compared ASEAN with the European Union, and assumed ASEAN nations are aspiring towards an EU style model. ASEAN was conceived only as a meeting place, and the organization has remained as such, with no one to drive it since the former secretary-general Dr Surin Pitsuwan (2008-2012). Today, any secondment of ASEAN civil servants to the ASEAN secretariat in Jakarta is considered as punishment by high-ranking diplomatic staff.

BRICS was founded on a completely different premise. Although, BRICS meetings have become more of a "talkfest" in recent times, the grouping is very quickly becoming an economic block with a mission. Thirty-six nations attended the Kazan meeting, which represented 57% of the world's population. BRICS economic size is now much bigger than the G7.

BRICS has been able to grow quickly because of the sanctions placed against Russia during the Russo-Ukraine conflict. The Biden administration and EU sanctions have spurred the realization of the need for nations of the "South" to join a forum/block that can build new diplomatic, economic, social and cultural paths.

From this perspective, BRICS is a part creation from the US, EU, and United Kingdom's sanction policy. This has resulted in new South-South cooperation, like the Sino-Indian border agreement at the Kazan meeting, which could have not been imagined just a short time ago. The attendance of United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, indicated that other forums will now be challenged by the influence of BRICS.

ASEAN cannot provide its member states what BRICS offers.

ASEAN is under the chair of Malaysia in 2025, which will be a challenge. Respective ASEAN governments no longer see any consensus, particularly with their view of the world today. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam see BRICS as their future path, where BRICS will most probably play a much broad influence in foreign policy, than considerations towards any ASEAN consensus, which is non-existent.

Some ASEAN members have become satellites of China, while Singapore affirms its strong relationship with the United States, together with the Philippines. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam see strategic ambiguity to some degree as a position that best safeguards their national interests. Thus, these nations now must balance out the competition of China and the United States for primacy in South-East Asia.

There is also unspoken recognition of the reality that the United States under the Biden administration has slipped backwards in the region to a no-return position. Even with a Trump victory on November 5, Trump's decision for the US to leave the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) during his first term, signalled US retreat. Chinese naval ships are seen much more in ASEAN today, with a semi-permanent port being at Cambodia's ream naval base, with access directly into the Gulf of Thailand. Indo-Russian joint naval exercises in the Java Sea have brought in another superpower into the region. These exercises balance off the recent Indonesian military exercises with the US and its local allies.