Immigration: the xenophobia trap

Japan 1.37; South Korea .81; China 1.16

All those countries mentioned have actively discouraged immigration; they do not want to disrupt the 'homogenous nature' of their populations, a term often used to describe the cultural and social cohesion that is believed to be maintained by a relatively uniform population. All have tried to encourage women to have more children, with absolutely no success. China, for example, abandoned its 'one child' policy in 2015 and encouraged families to have two or even three children- the birthrate in China has continued to decline.

The consequences of the above policies are an ageing and declining workforce and the ever-increasing cost of caring for the elderly in their countries.

While China will be powerful for some time to come, its workforce is ageing; the forecast is that China's working-age population will be 20% smaller in 2050 than it was in 2020. The continuation of the current policy will ensure that Japan's workforce will be about 30% smaller than it was in 2020 and South Korea's about 35% smaller. So, both countries will become less and less economically relevant over time due to a declining and ageing population.

Is this what we want for Australia?

The world's population is growing, and most of the growth comes from Africa. The fertility rate in Africa, for example, is more than 4, meaning that each woman produces at least four children in her lifetime.

There are already daily reports in Australia of shortages of Tradespeople, Doctors, Hospitality workers and so on.

The housing shortage is blamed on high levels of immigration. I had my own house built in eight months, but it now takes up to two years to achieve the same thing, largely because of a shortage of tradespeople.

Conceptually, we seem to be going round and round in circles: Blame the housing shortage on migrants, so slow the arrival of migrants. The housing shortage gets worse. Allow a few more migrants into Australia. Build a few more houses. The housing shortage continues. Blame migrants for causing the shortage, and so the circus continues.

The bottom line is that with the Australian fertility rate at 1.78, the population will decline unless migration continues. The average age of the Australian population in 1980 was 28.4; by 2030, it is forecast to be 39.5. So, the country could age and shrink at the same time.

All the Australian political parties promise an improving economy and a higher standard of living. How will this be achieved with a declining and ageing population?

Is what we are being promised by Governments around the world devoid of reality?