Immigration: the xenophobia trap

There has been much discussion about the level of immigration into Australia. The political rhetoric is all about limiting the number of new arrivals.

Several countries to our North have done exactly that with potentially disastrous consequences:

Japan's population peaked in 2020 at 128.5 million.

The 2024 forecast is 122.6 million, and the 2100 forecast is 75 million.

South Korea's population will peak in 2024 at 51.7 million.

The 2050 forecast is for 47 million, and the 2100 forecast is for 27 million.

Even China will fall into the same trap:

China's population will peak in 2024 at 1.425 billion.

The 2050 forecast is 1.3 billion, and the 2100 forecast is forecast at 800 million.

Why, you may ask:

In order to maintain the current population, each woman needs to produce 2.1 children in her life.

Current Fertility rates:

Japan 1.37; South Korea .81; China 1.16

All those countries mentioned have actively discouraged immigration; they do not want to disrupt the 'homogenous nature' of their populations, a term often used to describe the cultural and social cohesion that is believed to be maintained by a relatively uniform population. All have tried to encourage women to have more children, with absolutely no success. China, for example, abandoned its 'one child' policy in 2015 and encouraged families to have two or even three children- the birthrate in China has continued to decline.

The consequences of the above policies are an ageing and declining workforce and the ever-increasing cost of caring for the elderly in their countries.

While China will be powerful for some time to come, its workforce is ageing; the forecast is that China's working-age population will be 20% smaller in 2050 than it was in 2020. The continuation of the current policy will ensure that Japan's workforce will be about 30% smaller than it was in 2020 and South Korea's about 35% smaller. So, both countries will become less and less economically relevant over time due to a declining and ageing population.

Is this what we want for Australia?

The world's population is growing, and most of the growth comes from Africa. The fertility rate in Africa, for example, is more than 4, meaning that each woman produces at least four children in her lifetime.

There are already daily reports in Australia of shortages of Tradespeople, Doctors, Hospitality workers and so on.

The housing shortage is blamed on high levels of immigration. I had my own house built in eight months, but it now takes up to two years to achieve the same thing, largely because of a shortage of tradespeople.

Conceptually, we seem to be going round and round in circles: Blame the housing shortage on migrants, so slow the arrival of migrants. The housing shortage gets worse. Allow a few more migrants into Australia. Build a few more houses. The housing shortage continues. Blame migrants for causing the shortage, and so the circus continues.

The bottom line is that with the Australian fertility rate at 1.78, the population will decline unless migration continues. The average age of the Australian population in 1980 was 28.4; by 2030, it is forecast to be 39.5. So, the country could age and shrink at the same time.

All the Australian political parties promise an improving economy and a higher standard of living. How will this be achieved with a declining and ageing population?

Is what we are being promised by Governments around the world devoid of reality?

Australia

Australia's population grew by 624 000 in 2023 to 26.6 million (106 000 by Natural causes (births minus deaths), and there were 518 000 net immigrants.

The promise from both sides of politics is a reduction in these numbers.

Will that actually happen, and is it really in Australia's best interest?

Many of the so-called 'new migrants' are actually already here. As all sides of politics know very well, they arrive by air on a visitor's visa and outstay their visa. By the time the authorities catch up with them, they are already settled in Australia, with a job and accommodation. Mostly, they are allowed to stay.

So, in reality, the discussion about restricting immigration is a myth. All it does is create an opportunity to point fingers.

United Kingdom

The UK population in 2024 is 67.9 million. In 2023, there were 1.2 million arrivals, and 500,000 people left the country. In 2023, there were 18000 more deaths than births, so the population growth of 700,000 was all due to immigration.

29,000 people crossed the English Channel in small boats in 2023 (.024 % of the total intake of 1.2 million), which is irrelevant in the scheme of things, but all we hear about are small boats crossing the English Channel and plans to send them all to Rwanda.

It seems that governments in Australia, the UK, and most western governments focus on rhetoric and promise a reduction in immigration when the facts tell a different story.

Australia has developed one of the most successful multicultural societies in the world. We now have an opportunity to build on this by encouraging reasonable levels of migration, especially in areas where there is a shortage of skills. There will be an ongoing housing shortage in the short term, but if there is a continuing shortage of tradespeople due to lower migration levels, this will turn out to be a long-term problem.

Does Australia want a declining and ageing population or a vibrant, dynamic, growing Country?

Can't we just be honest with ourselves and have a straightforward discussion about Australia's needs, given the shrinking and ageing population?

Surely, a bipartisan approach to this critical issue, vital to Australia's future, is what is needed now, rather than parties just trying to score points off each other.