Australia swallows renewables, passionately

Now to the global case study. It uses a recent example from the International Energy Agency. The IEA was for decades the world's authoritative source and curator of trusted independent energy statistics and standards. In recent years it has assumed something more like a renewables activist role, promoting renewable energy globally.

In January 2024 the IEA released its report Renewables 2023. There was the usual ceremonial announcement with a set of breathless proclamations. Here are some headlines, verbatim:

• Massive expansion of renewable power opens door to achieving global tripling goal set at COP28.
• World added 50% more renewable capacity in 2023 than in 2022 and next 5 years will see fastest growth yet.
• The world's capacity to generate renewable electricity is expanding faster than at any time in the last three decades.

Note how, in comparison with the proposed new time-to-target metric, it is impossible to pin down exactly what these claims signify in terms of energy statistics. But they certainly give the impression of vigorous global growth. Maybe growth in the rest of the world is putting Australia to shame. But isn't Australia meant to be a global leader in renewables, a renewable energy powerhouse?

Let's see what global statistical data say, using the same framework and assumptions as above for Australia.

Solar and wind are the global growth drivers.

• 2022 generation (which was a world record) serves as the baseline.
• As for Australia, 2.6 times present total electricity generation is adopted as the future target for renewables output.
• Energy data come from the current authoritative source of global energy statistics (not the IEA), the Energy Institute's Statistical Review of World Energy which uses both exajoules (10¹⁸ joules) and terawatt-hours for its energy units. All original energy units are converted here to petajoules.

Here are the relevant global quantities:

• Total 2022 generation 104,994 PJ
• Total 2022 renewables generation 15,135 PJ
• Estimated future target for clean generation 2.6 X 104,994 = 272,984 PJ/year
• Gap to be closed by solar and wind growth 272,984 – 15,135 = 257,849 PJ/year
• Latest annual global growth for solar+wind, for the year from 2021 to 2022 1,850 PJ/year
• Period to close the gap at latest growth rate 257,849/1,850 = 139 years.

Well that's a relief. Australia is still well ahead of the world as a whole, 63 years time-to-target vs 139 years for the world.

But what really stands out here is the chasm between rhetoric and reality. The IEA wins the prize for rhetoric. And it's almost impossible to unravel the true meaning of the above IEA headlines from the jumble of numbers and units in its announcements.

To summarise, "energy transition" describes the process of switching all energy away from fossil fuels and towards other forms of energy that are clean. For most people that means renewables. At present "energy transition" expresses a hope, a work in progress. The transition has not been completed anywhere in the world. No household, village, town, city, state, province or nation, worldwide has, at least intentionally, eliminated its use of either fossil fuels or the products of fossil fuels they get from elsewhere. That doesn't mean it's impossible. Every component exists for generating the huge quantities of clean electricity needed. Photovoltaic solar energy converters, huge wind turbines, hydroelectric dams for storage or generation, electrochemical batteries – these favoured elements of the transition are all known and are elegant examples of modern science and technology.