Biden vs Trump 2024: where does Australia stand?

Despite the fact that the majority - great majority - of Americans want their president to prioritise the deep seated domestic problems of the country, we have seen Biden start off his current administration with the tagline "America is back" to emphasise that his mission is to reassert American leadership of the world.

As his domestic problems have multiplied, Biden has now retreated to a lower profile foreign policy for the US. This has necessiated a reliance on American allies in Europe and the Pacific to pay the bill to support American hegemony and fly the US flag. This lower profile role is also in part driven by diminishing financial resources. The Biden administration ran a $1.695 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2023. It was the third-largest deficit in US history. The only time the US government ran bigger deficits was during the COVID years of 2020 and 2021.

An even lower profile, less adventurous, more dovish US foreign policy execution can be expected of Trump should he defeat Biden. Trump's second term is likely to see him pursue more isolationist policies. According to a report drawing on feedback from a large group of current and former aides and diplomats, the election result would enable Trump to make sweeping changes to the U.S. stance on issues ranging from the Ukraine and Middle East wars to trade with China.

Whoever wins the 2024 presidential election, the allies and deputy sheriffs of American foreign policy in Asia, Europe and the Middle East will need to prepare for the reality of a new world order in which the urgency of taking on America First domestic concerns will see a different Pax Americana emerge. It will also see the interests and concerns of allied countries sidelined, marginalised or sacrificed. American exceptionalism in waging wars around the world may continue but it is the Treasury of U.S. allies and their military forces that is likely to be in the front line to support it.

Australia A Major Loser

Among the major losers of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election could be the following countries

• Australia
• Japan
• Taiwan
• Philippines
• Ukraine
• United Kingdom
• European Union countries
• Israel

Likely winners of the U.S. disorder will be the group of BRICS and like-minded nations advocating a new international order based on a system of global governance that is more inclusive and egalitarian.

The advance of a multipolar world order that represents the objectives and ambitions of developing nations could, in the long run, paradoxically help the U.S. towards more progressive and constructive outcomes at home and abroad.

The Western MIM, including Australia's, will resist this and the emerging new American First policy preeminence but we are at a time in history when the old rules, benchmarks and tools of analysis do not work.