What about the Taiwan war possibility?
Mr. Mearsheimer doesn't expect China to move on Taiwan, citing the difficulties of a sea assault.
I don't agree.
Chairman Xi has explicitly stated that he wants the capacity to reunite Taiwan with China by 2027.
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Why not take him at his word? Most of what he says he will do he does, or at least attempts to.
And why does he have to try an assault at all? By 2027 he will have a much larger navy than the United States.
While the U.S. Navy will be operating halfway around the world from its berths, the Chinese Navy will be close to its home ports.
The U.S. Navy will also be strung out around the world, with two carrier groups just having moved to the Middle East in recent days.
Why not enforce a blockade and "starve" Taiwan into submission?
While it is probably self-sufficient in food, 97.7 percent of its energy supply is imported (and a lot of that from Australia).
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A further problem for the U.S. is that "the United States is now almost entirely reliant on foreign sources for the production of the cutting-edge semiconductors that power all the AI algorithms critical for defense systems and everything else" (pdf)-foreign sources mostly being Taiwan.
The U.S. is also running down its existing supplies of munitions which are being given to Ukraine, and now to Israel.
While the needs of both countries are to some extent complementary, the United States' diminished manufacturing capacity is going to have trouble supplying the Ukrainians, let alone maintaining supply on a third front.
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