False rape allegations aren't so rare

They're all singing from the same songbook, but that's just been shot full of holes. Finally, that famous meta-analysis has been subjected to proper scrutiny – and the data actually reveals false allegations are far less rare than is commonly claimed.

And this is all courtesy of two Australian researchers, Tom Nankivell and John Papadimitriou, who have expertise in statistical analysis and public policy, and more than three decades of experience each as researchers and policy analysts with various government agencies. They conducted a review (pdf), titled True or false, or somewhere between? A review of the high-quality studies on the prevalence of false sexual assault reports, in which they analysed the methods and data reported in often-cited statistical surveys of the prevalence of false allegations, undertaken in various countries.

This research was recently highlighted by Oxford criminology researcher, Ros Burnett, who described the Nankivell/Papadimitriou review as "an important and overdue study," commending the authors for bringing "an empirical approach and unrhetorical tone to the discussion".

Ros Burnett's discussion of the Australian researchers' review, published (pdf) last month in The Justice Gap, shows that the Ferguson and Malouff meta-analysis which came up with the much-promoted 5% false allegation rate, aggregated the findings of statistical studies which misused policing definitions and categories to skew their results. In effect, the surveys cherry-picked the lowest possible rate, selectively ignoring whole categories of cases likely to include false allegations.

Get this… In counting up false allegations, the studies that Ferguson and Malouff re-analysed ONLY included cases where the complainant admitted the allegation was false, or where police found strong evidential grounds to assume she (or he) had made it up or had been mistaken. That meant excluding all cases where there was insufficient evidence to prosecute, or where the complainant withdrew the allegation, or where the accused was tried and acquitted. NONE of these cases were included under false allegations! In addition, at least one of the studies included basic mathematical errors while others relied on very limited data.

With this highly dubious culling of the data, it is no wonder that they come up with such a low rate of false allegations. Nankivell and Papadimitriou laboriously re-examined the original data to include estimates of possible false allegations in these excluded categories. They concluded that "even with reasonably modest assumptions about the actual level of false allegations in other categories, the prevalence rate for the studies sample would easily exceed 10% and could approach 15%."

Note this is the conclusion from two very conservative, quantitative researchers. Given what we now know about how the feminists cooked the books, what's the bet the real rate is actually far higher? According to a recent YouGov survey, 19% of Australians know someone personally who was a victim of false accusation of sexual abuse or rape.

Yet the Nankivell/Papadimitriou report is vital information, so necessary for putting the record straight about this critical statistic which is being used to shut down debate on false allegations and undermine the chances of a fair hearing for accused men.

Please help make sure people know about this study. It is important that news of this path-breaking analysis reaches decision-makers in our police force and justice system, lawyers, journalists and everyone complicit in promoting the feminist myth that false rape allegations hardly ever happen. Here's the best link to use to circulate the study.

In her article examining this research, Ros Burnett discusses her own work for over a decade as a criminologist looking at wrongful allegations – she's the editor of an excellent book, Wrongful Accusations of Sexual and Child Abuse. Burnett describes the hundreds of cases she has encountered where individuals have been found to be falsely accused and her frustration when such cases are dismissed as 'extremely' or 'vanishingly' rare. She has been personally accused of "being an apologist for rapists."

That's the climate we live in, where misinformation is cooked up to promote the women-don't-lie narrative and denigrate anyone with the courage to tell the truth about what's really going on. Men are being falsely accused of rape in this country – I am in touch with two tragic cases of young men jailed in the last few weeks following absurd allegations which should never have ended up in court.

Nankivell and Papadimitriou rightly make the point that "there is no credible evidence that women routinely fabricate sexual assault claims" and that "the majority of sexual assault reports are true." But what also muddies the waters is the massive expansion of the type of behaviour now classified as sexual assault. There's a steady stream of cases now finding their way into court which involve young couples, where a girl may suddenly decide that she hadn't given consent on one occasion after having sex when she was half asleep, or pretty drunk, even though they might have done this dozens of times before. It makes no sense.