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Kim’s gunrunning is a blessing in disguise and opportunity for Kyiv’s allies?

By Liang Nah - posted Monday, 9 October 2023


With that said, it is interesting to note that Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway, have agreed to donate F-16 multirole fighters to Ukraine, while the U.S. has expressed its willingness to endorse such a transfer. Training for pilots and ground crew will be conducted in European NATO states, and also in the U.S.. The UAF may eventually receive several dozen F-16s and even a number of Mirage 2000 fighter bombers after training is completed in France, but the true value in revitalizing the UAF's aircraft inventory lies not in the airframes themselves, but the ordnance such planes carry.

Crucially, such jets can be equipped with long range air-to-air missiles like the AIM-120 AMRAAM for the F-16 and the MICA for the Mirage 2000. These are potentially capable to shooting down Russian aircraft at ranges of 105km for the AMRAAM and 80km for the MICA, which should encourage the VVS's aircraft to stay well within Russian airspace, decreasing the number of air launched attacks against Ukrainian territory. Furthermore, the Mirage is compatible with SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles, thereby providing offensive flexibility for the UAF, but due to the airborne ordinance earlier provided by Washington, it is the F-16 which can more readily enhance the UAF's combat efficacy.

Fundamentally, F-16s become force multipliers because they are able to interface with and accurately deploy the previously American supplied Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM), which are cost effective GPS guided bombs, as well as the High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM) which are designed to home in on and destroy the radars which coordinate Russian air defences. Such weapons work far better with the F-16 than when currently jury rigged onto Soviet era Mig-29s and Su-27s of the UAF. Additionally, with F-16s in Ukrainian hands, Washington could choose to supply the AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM), which is the U.S. analogue to the SCALP/Storm Shadow missile, if stocks of the latter become scarce, so as to maintain the UAF's long range strike options.

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In Closing……

This tragic war has gone on for long enough. If Putin insists on trying to prolong this war using a "Hail Mary" escalation employing illegal North Korean arms shipments, Ukraine's allies must and should bestow upon the AFU, the technologically decisive means with which to expel the Russian occupiers, and liberate their rightful territory. Towards this end, guided artillery shells, longer ranged missiles and glide bombs, along with Western manufactured air power, are some of the vital keys necessary for Kyiv to bring this unjust conflict to a decisive end.

But even as some national politicians of Ukraine's allies might fear further antagonizing Russia, or dislike the optics of Ukraine bound aid while locals endure economic difficulties, it must be said that not adequately reacting to North Korean backed Russian escalation will only sow the seeds for national security emergencies in future, if Moscow manages to permanently take Ukrainian territory under their de facto control. Hence, voters need to be convinced that it is better to deal with an exhausted Russia now, rather than a re-armed and nationalistically energized Russia later.

 

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About the Author

Liang Tuang Nah is an Associate Research Fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.

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