Airbnb is not responsible for our housing crisis

Housing prices remain stubbornly high

Our research at the Australian Institute for Progress suggested that to preserve affordability dwelling prices should fall somewhere between 18 and 32 percent as a result of the rate increases.

Prices have stabilised after a fall of much less than 18 percent at the bottom of our range.

This is because the gap between supply and demand has tightened more than it ever has in our history.

Supply has been crunched by planning restrictions; unrealistic expectations by planners that infill (splitting blocks and building multi-story in already developed areas) can fill more gaps than it can; and governments loading new home buyers up with costs for infrastructure which they should be paying themselves out of consolidated revenue.

Demand has been fuelled by huge rates of immigration; a decrease in the average number of residents per dwelling; material shortages, a hangover from COVID; a shortage of tradesmen; and widespread bankruptcies in the building industry.

Supply for renters has decreased even further because landlords have been withdrawing from the market because of rising costs. Various state governments have also been introducing tenant rights legislation, shifting some of the rights of ownership from the landlord to the tenant and increasing the landlord's risk.

Has short-stay accommodation contributed to the problem? To some extent. But compared to the others, it is a bit player.

Where does short stay fit in the equation?

Short stay creates supply and demand. It has created a new demand for accommodation which may be, but not necessarily, met by taking housing out of the long-term rental pool.

It may equally well come from existing holiday rentals, or even be purpose-built stock which is unsuitable for long-term rental.

The Queensland government commissioned the report (pdf), "A Review of the Impacts of Short-term Rental Accommodation in Queensland" which was delivered in June this year.

The authors find that less than 1 percent of residential housing is a short stay and that it hasn't increased since 2018 and appears to have plateaued.

If there wasn't a rental crisis five years ago when short stays were a similar proportion of the market, and it hasn't increased since then, it should be no surprise that their regression analysis could find no link between short stays and housing affordability.