Indonesia's march towards middle-power status

Probably not on the same scale and grandeur as the Bandung Conference, the G20 Summit that President Jokowi Widodo hosted at Bali in November 2022 was a significant global event that featured, among others, President Xi Jinping making his first appearance after three years of self-imposed isolation following the Covid 19 pandemic.

It was Jokowi who arranged for President Joe Biden and Xi to meet on the sideline, prior to the summit proper that helped break the ice between the two leaders after America shot down two Chinese spy balloons over its territory.

Although the G 20 summit was dominated by geopolitics, as some claim, "to the irritation of the Indonesian hosts who wanted to focus on food & security as well as climate change," it helped raise the political stature for Indonesia and Jokowi's personal credibility.

In May, Jokowi successfully hosted the 42nd Asean Summit at Labuan Bajo, an island paradise in the southernmost part of Indonesia famous for pristine marine life. As ASEAN Chairman for 2023, Indonesia is once again at the forefront of international leadership navigating Indonesia through the treacherous geopolitical waters in the region brought about by the uncertainties in US-China rivalry.

Although, under its chairmanship, Indonesia is not able to move the needle over the internal conflict in Myanmar, Jakarta was able to push for small reforms via its soft approach. Thailand and Cambodia are talking separately to the military junta in Myanmar on how to end the internal crisis.

Indonesia's Asean Chairmanship has focused on how to strengthen the currently ineffectual treaty organization to become a fast-growing, inclusive, and sustainable economic region. Many are not convinced that Asean will hold its centrality given the global and regional political uncertainties. The internal fissures or disagreements within the enlarged organization are much more difficult to manage than when Asean consisted of five members that subscribed to an identical founding ideology of resisting the influence of communism.

In July this year, Indonesia hosted the 56th Asean Foreign Ministers Meeting at Jakarta as a follow up to the Summit. Several issues facing the organization and the region's security were discussed including the need to speed up and an early conclusion of the Code of Conduct mechanism with China in the South China Sea that has been on the table since 2000. That the region could relate to China without the COC speaks volume of its "relevance".

Jakarta also organized the Asean Regional Forum meeting in Jakarta.

At a recent conference in Kuala Lumpur to discuss middle power agency in the Indo-Pacific a young Indonesian scholar lamented Indonesia's domestic challenges playing greater prominence in regional and global affairs. She also alluded to the difficulties of Indonesia playing a balanced role to maintain stability and security in the region despite its de facto leadership in the region.

She notes, "while the de facto leadership of Indonesia has been accepted as conventional wisdom, the extent to which Jakarta has succeded in exercising leadership in Asean and how other Southeast Asian countries have perceived its attempt to do so remains questionable."

The writer also posits that Indonesia's capacity to exert leadership in international affairs, which she labels as "international endeavors," will be based on domestic audience and domestic interests. She reminded the audience that Indonesia's international ambitions rest on shaky domestic foundations partly due to the lack of resources to support a higher international profile.

One other issue that is likely to bedevil the elites as they aspire to play a more prominent role in international affairs is how to balance its international ambitions with the expected leadership role of Asean. Many see Indonesia as the anchor for the Asean ship. Without which, the ship will sail into turbulent waters.

Some of the domestic challenges that Indonesia needs to overcome apart from corruption, religious extremism, ideological conservatism, and poverty include the difficult task of preserving its democracy that is resilient and inclusive as enshrined in its Pancasila philosophy.

This requires hands-on leadership that has been exemplified by Jokowi, a leader with a clear vision. His exit from the presidential palace in 2024 may leave behind a political vacuum. Whoever is elected to replace him hopefully will continue with his unfinished mission to make Indonesia a respectable middle power, one that can punch above its weight.