Indonesia's march towards middle-power status

Indonesia looks poised for an economic boom that could spur its quest for a higher international political profile. Many scholars, politicians, and corporate figures believe the nation has the right attributes to become more than the regional power it is now.

For some Indonesians, Southeast Asia, comprising the 10 member countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, is too small and too constraining a space for the nation that wants to spread its wings globally.

President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo came into office in 2014 enunciating a doctrine to make the country into a "Global Maritime Fulcrum," a maritime force between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, called at the time Indonesia's first actionable grand strategy. Its navy has shown occasional muscle in standing up to the Chinese to protect its sovereign waters. Chinese officials have sought to link the Belt and Road strategy to it, and US Secretary of Defense James Mattis acknowledged Indonesia as the "maritime fulcrum of the Indo-Pacific area" in a 2018 visit to Jakarta. While it has received less attention during his second term, it remains one of his signature contributions to Indonesian foreign policy.

The Indonesian economy has done well in the decades following 1989 reforms in the wake of the fall of Suharto and his kleptocratic New Order. A recent bi-annual World Bank report that assesses macroeconomic developments and specific risks has given the economic outlook for Indonesia a thumbs-up. The Indonesia Economic Prospects (IEP) projects moderate growth of 4.9 percent in 2023, slightly lower than its 5 percent growth in the past five years.

Jokowi, as the president is universally known, is convinced Indonesia will become the world's fourth largest economy by 2045. However, many others believe that Indonesia is on track to make it by 2050. The ambition could be derailed by political instability and extreme forms of religious radicalism that has its roots in rural poverty and income inequality.

Corruption remains endemic in Indonesia despite desultory efforts to curb it. But politically, given the leading candidates to replace him, Jokowi's expected possible successors all appear to be showing a healthy respect for democratic electoral principles so it is likely the ship of state will stay on an even keel without veering into autocracy or dictatorship.

External factors like an impending global recession and falling commodity prices for palm oil and nickel, for example, may upset the growth trajectory. Indonesia which holds more than a fifth of the world's nickel, the world's third largest source of cobalt and is also the world's largest exporter of palm oil in 2023.

With a population of more than 270 million and growing, it is the world's fourth most populous nation, the largest archipelagic country, the third largest democracy, and the largest Muslim nation.

Politically, under President Jokowi whose final Presidential term ends in February 2024, Indonesia has raised its political profile and with it his personal stature as a respected global statesman. Although Indonesia's modernization programs still lag South Korea, for example, in science, technology, innovation and industry, it is moving to close the gap slowly.

Despite having the largest economy in SEA, unlike Singapore, Indonesia is far from becoming a major financial center in the region. Its new capital, Nusantara, under construction, will take years before it matures into a metropolis.

Jokowi is the first Asian leader to visit Ukraine and Russia since the war in Ukraine. Although the dividends from his peace mission didn't change the course of the war, he has left behind a personal legacy on his people, as Sukarno, the first President did.

Ousted in a military coup in 1965, Sukarno is revered for putting Indonesia on the world map. Together with some leaders from the Third World, Sukarno founded the Non-Aligned Movement that lasts to this day. Among the most prominent world leaders who attended the Bandung Conference in 1955 were Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, Burmese Prime Minister U Nu, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, and Chinese Premier and Foreign Minister Zhou Enlai.

Probably not on the same scale and grandeur as the Bandung Conference, the G20 Summit that President Jokowi Widodo hosted at Bali in November 2022 was a significant global event that featured, among others, President Xi Jinping making his first appearance after three years of self-imposed isolation following the Covid 19 pandemic.

It was Jokowi who arranged for President Joe Biden and Xi to meet on the sideline, prior to the summit proper that helped break the ice between the two leaders after America shot down two Chinese spy balloons over its territory.

Although the G 20 summit was dominated by geopolitics, as some claim, "to the irritation of the Indonesian hosts who wanted to focus on food & security as well as climate change," it helped raise the political stature for Indonesia and Jokowi's personal credibility.

In May, Jokowi successfully hosted the 42nd Asean Summit at Labuan Bajo, an island paradise in the southernmost part of Indonesia famous for pristine marine life. As ASEAN Chairman for 2023, Indonesia is once again at the forefront of international leadership navigating Indonesia through the treacherous geopolitical waters in the region brought about by the uncertainties in US-China rivalry.

Although, under its chairmanship, Indonesia is not able to move the needle over the internal conflict in Myanmar, Jakarta was able to push for small reforms via its soft approach. Thailand and Cambodia are talking separately to the military junta in Myanmar on how to end the internal crisis.

Indonesia's Asean Chairmanship has focused on how to strengthen the currently ineffectual treaty organization to become a fast-growing, inclusive, and sustainable economic region. Many are not convinced that Asean will hold its centrality given the global and regional political uncertainties. The internal fissures or disagreements within the enlarged organization are much more difficult to manage than when Asean consisted of five members that subscribed to an identical founding ideology of resisting the influence of communism.

In July this year, Indonesia hosted the 56th Asean Foreign Ministers Meeting at Jakarta as a follow up to the Summit. Several issues facing the organization and the region's security were discussed including the need to speed up and an early conclusion of the Code of Conduct mechanism with China in the South China Sea that has been on the table since 2000. That the region could relate to China without the COC speaks volume of its "relevance".

Jakarta also organized the Asean Regional Forum meeting in Jakarta.

At a recent conference in Kuala Lumpur to discuss middle power agency in the Indo-Pacific a young Indonesian scholar lamented Indonesia's domestic challenges playing greater prominence in regional and global affairs. She also alluded to the difficulties of Indonesia playing a balanced role to maintain stability and security in the region despite its de facto leadership in the region.

She notes, "while the de facto leadership of Indonesia has been accepted as conventional wisdom, the extent to which Jakarta has succeded in exercising leadership in Asean and how other Southeast Asian countries have perceived its attempt to do so remains questionable."

The writer also posits that Indonesia's capacity to exert leadership in international affairs, which she labels as "international endeavors," will be based on domestic audience and domestic interests. She reminded the audience that Indonesia's international ambitions rest on shaky domestic foundations partly due to the lack of resources to support a higher international profile.

One other issue that is likely to bedevil the elites as they aspire to play a more prominent role in international affairs is how to balance its international ambitions with the expected leadership role of Asean. Many see Indonesia as the anchor for the Asean ship. Without which, the ship will sail into turbulent waters.

Some of the domestic challenges that Indonesia needs to overcome apart from corruption, religious extremism, ideological conservatism, and poverty include the difficult task of preserving its democracy that is resilient and inclusive as enshrined in its Pancasila philosophy.

This requires hands-on leadership that has been exemplified by Jokowi, a leader with a clear vision. His exit from the presidential palace in 2024 may leave behind a political vacuum. Whoever is elected to replace him hopefully will continue with his unfinished mission to make Indonesia a respectable middle power, one that can punch above its weight.