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Policy 'guard rails' for Australian real income?

By Geoff Carmody - posted Wednesday, 26 July 2023


Tricky. In practice:

  • the inflation railway line 'gauge' is between 2-3% over the cycle (whatever that is);
  • this works as a broad price constraint, giving us an inflation target for policy to aim at;
  • per capita real income railway lines could follow actual real economic outcomes (up or down);
  • following these means affordable real incomes as enterprise/industry performance varies;
  • a wide 'guard rail' gauge around this 'track' allows outcomes to bounce around even more;
  • using the railway analogy, it results in 'hunting' of the economy between track gauge limits;
  • this extra volatility makes policy control difficult (as now) and widens the track gauge itself;
  • it might damage the railway rolling stock and wheels (the economy).

Will a transition path be needed? As the Irish person said to the traveller asking directions to Dublin:

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If you want to get to Dublin, I wouldn't start from here.

Of course not. But we have to. As a known starting point, it's all we've got.

We also need to know – and head towards – an agreed sustainable real national income Dublin.

Can we agree on real income 'guard rails'? Just more 'virtue signalling' on the never-never?

Too many hands in too many cookie jars? Especially government budget cookie jars? In short:

Bugger the cake, what about my slice?

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Can you persuade politicians to accept direct constraints on their pork-barrel profligacy? I doubt it. In the detail of vote-trawling, forget it. As an overall constraint, less improbable? Still a long shot.

Continue making big policy mistakes, ultimately forcing (more painful) adjustment, anyway? Likely.

There are plenty of overseas lessons from which we can learn vicariously. If we want to.

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About the Author

Geoff Carmody is Director, Geoff Carmody & Associates, a former co-founder of Access Economics, and before that was a senior officer in the Commonwealth Treasury. He favours a national consumption-based climate policy, preferably using a carbon tax to put a price on carbon. He has prepared papers entitled Effective climate change policy: the seven Cs. Paper #1: Some design principles for evaluating greenhouse gas abatement policies. Paper #2: Implementing design principles for effective climate change policy. Paper #3: ETS or carbon tax?

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