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Policy 'guard rails' for Australian real income?

By Geoff Carmody - posted Wednesday, 26 July 2023


Using national accounts, noting GDP deficiencies, this measure could set real income 'guard rails'.

We could add satellite national accounts measures. For example:

  • an environmental satellite account, SNA/SEEA-based, measures emissions reduction efforts;
  • these would subtract (net) costs from the net income mix;
  • how do we measure our net emissions reduction benefits against our net abatement costs?;
  • incorporating net costs/benefits for Australia likely is a necessary 'guard rail' headache?
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'Comparative wage justice' and similar broad wage-setting rules rob the economy of needed micro-flexibility. Australian IR history is testament to this. National income 'guard rails' wouldn't help, either.

Must we re-learn that lesson?

The Hawke-Keating governments, supported by the Coalition, moved to more flexible enterprise-based alternatives. We need all the economic flexibility we can get.

Flexibility says national income 'guard rails' should be the sum of enterprise-level components. That is:

  • enterprise-specific net disposable income should define that enterprise's income 'guard rails';
  • industry-level net disposable income is a much less flexible alternative;
  • nationalaverage income 'guard rails' should not apply to all enterprises/industries.

Can policy aim for sustainable real per capita incomes?

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Enterprise-level real income 'guard rails', combined with the national inflation 'guard rails', deliver sustainable real income growth per capita, and more economic flexibility:

  • only low general inflation, on average, feeds into nominal wages and incomes;
  • real net enterprise disposable income per capita also feeds into nominal wages and incomes;
  • in total, these generate sustainable national nominal wages and incomes growth;
  • deviations from these (inflation + real income) 'guard rails' show how much we're off-track.

How wide should be the per capita real income 'guard rail' gauge be between upper and lower limits?

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About the Author

Geoff Carmody is Director, Geoff Carmody & Associates, a former co-founder of Access Economics, and before that was a senior officer in the Commonwealth Treasury. He favours a national consumption-based climate policy, preferably using a carbon tax to put a price on carbon. He has prepared papers entitled Effective climate change policy: the seven Cs. Paper #1: Some design principles for evaluating greenhouse gas abatement policies. Paper #2: Implementing design principles for effective climate change policy. Paper #3: ETS or carbon tax?

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Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

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