‘Fully focused’ Yes; serious No

The Albanese Government looks to be competent in many ways, but is it intent on losing the Voice referendum? Albanese says that he is fully focused on winning it, but are he and his political strategists serious about this?

Current polling shows that the yes vote for the Voice is a little greater than 50% with ~30% of voters who are undecided. There is an overlapping similar number of voters, who have yet to understand what the Voice referendum is about. While there is still a way to go before the referendum is held, past experience tells us that there will be a hardening of numbers closer to the date.

Only 8 of 44 Australian referenda have been successful. At 91% Australia-wide voting majority, the aboriginal referendum of 1967 sponsored by the Holt Government, was easily the most popular. It gave equality of Australian citizenship to aborigines. Of the seven other successful referenda, three sponsored by the Fraser Government succeeded in 1977 with voter margins of 73-78%. It seems unlikely that the yes vote for the Voice referendum will get close to those numbers.

Seven of the 8 successful referenda were approved by all 6 states; the only other successful referendum achieved a majority of 5 of the 6 states. Of those referenda that failed by just one state to achieve the requisite 4 majority of 6 states, the Australia-wide vote was less than 50% in two, and in the 3 where there was a majority of Australians voting yes, the yes vote was less than 63% (50.3, 50,7 and 62.2).

So why is the Albanese Government, which has demonstrated an impressive competence to achieve political goals, seeming to mishandle the run-up to the Voice referendum. By and large, this government has controlled the narrative, showing itself to be adept at communication.

Yet, this Government is accumulating with great speed many major problems that it will find difficult to solve – inflation, energy security, defence, housing for those already in Australia etc. To be real, it is not possible for the Albanese Government to come close to solving them.

On the other hand, Albanese will get plenty of sympathy points for the Voice referendum from those who are concerned about righting history and think with their hearts, even if the referendum fails. Is this why Albanese will not discuss the details of the Voice? Is this why he won't debate and legislate a Voice in the Parliament? Is this why he has been so closed to negotiating with the opposition? All previous successful referenda have had bipartisan support.

Sympathy for trying the Voice on, may well be the very thing that will save the Albanese Government at the next election. Is this by design? The ALP's strategists will have played this scenario.It is a shame that, win or lose, the current referendum as it is proposed, is and will divide the country, and divide Australians for the foreseeable future.