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Demographic winter: has the 'population bomb' now imploded?

By Keith Suter - posted Monday, 3 April 2023


Meanwhile there has also been the impact of consumerism: people prefer to spend money on themselves and not on costly children.

Now we are dealing with the implications of the new era.

For China, there is the haunting question: will it grow old before it grows rich? Europe and the US were able to develop aged care systems while populations were young and there was plenty of money; but China is already getting old and so "cannot make the aircraft while it is flying it". Does the fear of declining economic and population strength drive President Xi's impatience?

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In Japan (which is the world's "oldest country"), there are too many elderly people and not enough young workers (which gives Japan an incentive to devise robotics to make up for the lack of young workers).

By 2050 Japan, China, Spain, Italy, Singapore, and Poland (all very different countries) will have 40 per cent of their population aged 60 and over.

Luckily the 19th/ early 20th century labour-intensive work patterns are easing, with machines now doing much of the brutal back-breaking work. Meanwhile people can work for longer in better health in the new service sector.

Therefore, the formal retirement age will continue to increase to keep people working – even in France. They are needed to pay taxes, and to receive less old age pension. (Governments will have increasing problems funding old age pensions).

Will older people campaign in Australia for a "Grey New Deal", to stop being forced out of work too early, to end age discrimination, and for there to be a reduced emphasis on the young?

Looking to the longer term, are we failing to recognize population aging as a crisis as bad as, say, climate change? Demographics are destiny. The issues raised in this article have serious implications for Australia and elsewhere.

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Finally, populations are growing in many Islamic and African societies: will there be increased migration (legal/ illegal) from those areas into the richer world? Some young workers will be welcomed in the western world, but many other migrants will not be: how are they to be kept out?

Politicians will need to cease their "stop the boats" scare campaigns. The media should avoid adding to public anxiety.

Perhaps an Asian migrant family with enough courage, skill and initiative to sail to Australia in a rickety old boat should be welcomed as ideal entrepreneurs? They have the get up and go which an aging Australia needs.

 

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About the Author

Dr Keith Suter is a futurist, thought leader and media personality in the areas of social policy and foreign affairs. He is a prolific and well-respected writer and social commentator appearing on radio and television most weeks.

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