Demographic winter: has the 'population bomb' now imploded?

Half a century ago there were warnings about the "population bomb". The world had too many people and there was a fresh debate over the earth's "population carrying capacity". Some environmentalists asked whether Australia had too many people.

Now many countries seem to be running out of young people and there are concerns about a shortage of young taxpayers.

The Population Bomb was a 1968 best seller by US scientist Paul Ehrlich. It tapped into the fears previously raised by the UK's Rev Thomas Malthus (1766-1834). Malthus challenged the prevailing notion that countries should have as many people as possible both to grow the economy and staff the military (to this day we comment on, for example, "140m Russians versus 44m Ukrainians").

Malthus warned of the dangers of too many people. His fears were countered by the 19^th century's western world's expansion into agriculturally rich areas like US, Canada, New Zealand and Australia, and their provision of food for Europe.

By the late 19^th century, there were population "safety valves" via emigration to the colonies, and a desire to build up population to maintain large armies in readiness for the next war. Malthus' fears were then seen as outmoded and forgotten.

But by the late 1960s, there was a new concern about the environment. It is now hard to imagine but the "environment" was hardly discussed (and the word "environment" is not even mentioned in the 1945 United Nations Charter).

The post-World War II economic boom had been successful; the world was richer than ever before. But there were unexpected environmental consequences.

The Ehrlich book was controversial because it blamed the looming environmental crisis on population growth (especially in the developing world) - rather than the developed world's consumption of raw materials.

What few predicted at the time was that we would see the "bomb" defused in the late 20^th century and that by 2023 concern would be expressed that we were running out of young people and young workers!

Therefore: the "population" debate is undergoing yet another change.

The population bomb was defused by a number of factors. Education for girls and women has been very important. Education is the best contraception. The more intelligent a woman is, the fewer children she is likely to have.

There has also been improved birth control (which Rev Thomas Malthus could not canvas). There has also been improved healthcare: babies lived longer and so parents needed fewer of them because there was less need for "spares". We now have societies in which children bury their parents, rather than parents bury their children.