Ukraine: two ways of fighting in collision

Drones are major players in the future of warfare. They are comparatively cheap, easy to use, and come in a variety of formats (including cardboard).

Second, is Russia now fighting its last traditional campaign? Leaving aside the constant threat of nuclear weapons and human extinction, Russia's conventional labour-intensive style of fighting requires a large population.

But Russia may have reached "peak population". The population is around 143 million (Ukraine is about 43 million).

A fertility rate of 2.1 per cent is required for a national population to maintain its numbers. Russia's rate is only about 1.2 per cent, and so it is gradually running down.

Russia has some way to go before it runs out of soldiers. But soldiering is a young person's profession, and that supply is under threat.

Perhaps Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was driven by a sense of urgency that time is running out for Russia.

Is it too late for Russia to reinvent its military philosophy to move away from such a heavy reliance on being a steam roller? Can it learn to be nimble and innovative for the new era of warfare? The omens are not good. It has centuries of top-heavy command and control tradition to overcome.

Finally, there is the role of morale and a determination to fight.

Business experts tell us that "what can't be measured can't be managed". But often what is crucial cannot be measured.

Going into the war a year ago, commentators were focussed on the number of Russian and Ukrainian populations, and their equipment. All items that can be measured.

But we should remember from the US's failures in Vietnam, Iran and Afghanistan and the Soviet Union's failure in Afghanistan, that large forces are not necessarily the only decisive factor.

Morale and willingness to fight can be sensed but can't be counted as such. Here Ukraine is much stronger than Russia. Many Russian soldiers initially did not even know they were off to invade another country. Later Russians fled the country because they did not want to fight. Ukrainians have no choice but to fight.