How much paint will Dan Andrews lose?

Greens voters have shifted their attention to traditional environmental issues, like logging of old-growth forest, so they don't necessarily give the government credit on environmental issues.

The major swing issues appear to be to do with health – particularly hospitals and ambulances – and poor management of infrastructure.

There is plenty of incentive for voters to send Andrews a message that he is "power mad" and a "bully" for a variety of reasons such as COVID lockdowns, corruption scandals, maladministration, secrecy, high-handedness, and miring the state in debt.

The expectation that he will win is extremely strong at 73 per cent, so a lot of voters could feel they could safely direct a vote to another party, but still end up with a Labor government.

But what sort of message would they send by voting for Matthew Guy? Guy hasn't shaken the image of sleaze generated by rezonings when he was planning minister in the Napthine government, or when he was snapped dining on lobster at the same function as a mobster. And he has a problem cutting through and gaining attention, variously attributed to his own lack of ability, or media bias, depending on how you vote.

Since our poll Guy has also been hit by controversies around some of his candidates over their religious beliefs. Disciplining them will cause trouble for him with minority centre and right-wing parties whose preferences he needs, and not disciplining them will play into the hands of Daniel Andrews, who branded some of the minor parties "Nazis".

So the grounds are there for independents and the Greens to do well as a result of the lack of punch of the Liberal Party, and concern about the Andrews style of government.

Ironically, one thing that might limit these gains and direct votes to the Liberals is pity for them. Many voters accept the need for a strong opposition and don't feel they have it. A number of Labor voters were therefore thinking of voting for Liberal candidates who they thought had potential to redress this problem.

One of these was John Pesutto, once seen as a future Liberal leader, running in Hawthorn. This is also the seat most likely to fall to a teal candidate, Melissa Lowe, so it will provide a testing ground of protest votes. It's possible there could be a protest against the Liberals as well as Labor.

Labor can potentially win more than 50 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, but still win fewer than 50 per cent of the seats. Then again, Labor's campaign came home fast in 2018, and possible Liberal gains could easily evaporate.

So the finale of the second season of Victoria Votes has a couple of endings, but most have him surviving. The major question is – How strongly will he be chastised?