North Korean denuclearisation stasis – an unfortunate reality

Lastly, states act according to national interest and the high price that Kim will demand for any arms control would be more than U.S. national interest could bear. Setting aside the demand for full or partial sanctions abrogation, there will be the insistence on abolishing U.S.-ROK military exercises, along with the withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea. This are concessions that Washington cannot agree to as they would hobble U.S.-ROK military interoperability, and cripple American ability to support its Asian treaty allies, seriously hampering U.S. influence. For all these reasons, the pursuit of arms control with Pyongyang offers little if any policy prospects.

Suggested Policy Reactions?

It is clear that the Kim government has affirmed North Korean nuclear calcification, right to aggressive pre-emption, that Pyongyang's non-proliferation ethnics cannot be trusted, and that arms control is a non-starter, but what should the world do?

Essentially, denuclearization plans by the ROK and U.S. are frozen. Kim Jong-un will not even consider steps towards nuclear tension reduction over the next few months because that would make him look weak after having established such clear redlines. Also, with Washington's floundering relations with Moscow and Beijing, the latter two states might well be far less keen to enforce sanctions against North Korea. This would give the North breathing room to further expand its nuclear programme. Yet, things may change and since North Korea is sensitive to regional power dynamics, any international paradigm shifts which deprive the DPRK of crucial resources, could encourage softening of its nuclear stance over the medium to long term.

Concurrently, the U.S., ROK, Japan and other allies should maintain strong pressure on the Kim regime via strict implementation of all UNSC and unilateral sanctions, with utilization of available intelligence, law enforcement and even military assets to crack down on smuggling attempts. They should also endeavour to clamp down on North Korean cybercrime, online heists and bitcoin fraud to eliminate Pyongyang's illicit funding.