Australia needs to watch developments on Bougainville

In the recent national elections half the four seats were won by Pangu - the Prime Minister's Party.

That is irrelevant as the elections were not focused on independence. The view on Bougainville is the issue is non-negotiable...it will happen within three or four years.

The challenge this presents Australia is enormous. Our principal relationship with Bougainville for now must come via the Marape Government.

We can provide some direct assistance to Bougainville provided it is consistent with the policies and priorities of the PNG Government. To depart from that would put at some risk our excellent relationship with the Marape Government.

When it comes to the future status of Bougainville its policy is backed by just about all members of the PNG National Parliament, government and opposition.

Fortunately for PNG, the Solomon Islands will be wary about supporting or encouraging Bougainville independence as it has significant independence movements within the SI.

But there will be no such restraint on China.

In the Bougainville provincial elections a couple of years ago China backed directly and indirectly a number of candidates: they all lost.

The result is that the provincial administration led by the President being keen to distance itself from Chinese Government influences.

We can't guarantee that will continue if PNG continues to resist independence.

China is playing the long game, watching developments closely without overtly interfering.

I will be interested in Jim Chalmer's first budget in a couple of weeks to see what aid level is provided for the Solomons after the talks with Sogavare.