Australia needs to watch developments on Bougainville

The Prime Minister has been hosting his Solomon's counterpart in Canberra, according him status the justification for which frankly escapes me.

The idea that Manasseh Sogavare will abandon his close links with China just to ensure around $200 million a year is maintained is hard to believe.

But I guess even dialogue helps what is a very dangerous situation - a China outpost on our northern border.

I hope Anthony Albanese takes the opportunity to ask Sogavare his views on the future status of Bougainville.

Australia simply must be increasingly vigilant on this issue. We must monitor developments very closely. We can be assured China is!

The people of Bougainville voted very decisively a couple of years ago to head down the path to independence from PNG by 2025-2026.

Both the Marape Government, and its predecessor led by Peter O'Neill, have firmly rejected approving independence, full stop.

At a seminar in Canberra last week the PNG Government view was outlined by the Chief Secretary....the nation's top public servant. The Autonomous Government of Bougainville view was put by his counterpart.

What was overwhelmingly clear was simply this: the chasm between the national government position and that of the ABG was as wide as ever!!

There can really only be one outcome.

Sadly yet another rebellion on Bougainville is almost impossible to avoid.

There is no point Australia or PNG believing that somehow there will be a road to Damascus conversion.

In the recent national elections half the four seats were won by Pangu - the Prime Minister's Party.

That is irrelevant as the elections were not focused on independence. The view on Bougainville is the issue is non-negotiable...it will happen within three or four years.

The challenge this presents Australia is enormous. Our principal relationship with Bougainville for now must come via the Marape Government.

We can provide some direct assistance to Bougainville provided it is consistent with the policies and priorities of the PNG Government. To depart from that would put at some risk our excellent relationship with the Marape Government.

When it comes to the future status of Bougainville its policy is backed by just about all members of the PNG National Parliament, government and opposition.

Fortunately for PNG, the Solomon Islands will be wary about supporting or encouraging Bougainville independence as it has significant independence movements within the SI.

But there will be no such restraint on China.

In the Bougainville provincial elections a couple of years ago China backed directly and indirectly a number of candidates: they all lost.

The result is that the provincial administration led by the President being keen to distance itself from Chinese Government influences.

We can't guarantee that will continue if PNG continues to resist independence.

China is playing the long game, watching developments closely without overtly interfering.

I will be interested in Jim Chalmer's first budget in a couple of weeks to see what aid level is provided for the Solomons after the talks with Sogavare.

We might have secured a little more time while the future of Bougainville is debated in the new PNG National Parliament and wider community.

But no delay can alter the reality that independence is unavoidable.

And the added reality is that has enormous political stability concerns not just for PNG but Australia as well.

We must hope our national government is watching closely!