Fiji’s democracy 2022, a complex situation

Amongst the critics arrested, which included the National Federation Party leader (Biman Prasad) and two former prime ministers (Mahendra Chaudhry and Sitivini Rabuka), the Opposition MP Lynda Tabuya was accused of a “malicious act” after she posted a “Say no to iTaukei Land Trust Bill” cover picture on Facebook and argued that this was a human rights issue.

The Fiji Times, which had published an opinion piece that argued that the bill was poorly drafted  and failed to consult, would also back down after the arrests with its July 28 page one story only citing supporters of the bill in line with Fijian journalism operating under a constitutional provision which limits rights and freedoms “in the interests of national security, public safety, public order, public morality, public health or the orderly conduct of elections”.

The legislation passed on 30 July 2021 despite the opposition presenting a petition signed by more than 30,000 people (out of a population of just short of 1 million) to parliament the previous week.

While Bainimarama stated that the new law will not ‘steal the decision-making power’ of Indigenous landowners, police erected several security checkpoints around the country to thwart any civil  unrest with the defence minister (Inia Seruiratu) telling parliament of the need to avoid the past as “We don’t want Suva to be burnt again”.

As of August 2022, in the leadup to the next Fijian election, the two frontrunners are two former military strongmen who were involved in past coups (Voreqe Bainimarama 2006 and Sitiveni Rabuka 1987).  

While Bainimarama won elections leading the Fiji First (FF) party in 2014 and 2018, which received 71 per cent of Indo-Fijian votes in 2014, many of the FF leaders were part of the post-coup interim government that created the 2013 constitution that eliminated seats reserved for specific ethnicities.

In a single national electoral roll where each of the eight competing parties need five per cent of the vote to win one of the 55 seats, the popularity of single candidates is crucial given that Bainimarama individually garnered 69 per cent of FF’s total votes in 2014 and 73.81 per cent in 2018 while the party won 59.14 per cent and 50.02 of the total vote for the same elections.

Rabuka, when leader of the major Indigenous Fijian party, the Social Democratic Liberal Party, attracted 42.55 per cent of that party’s total 2018 vote.

Now heading the People’s Alliance Party, a June 2022 poll had Rabuka leading with 30 to 40 per cent of the projected vote compared to Bainimarama’s FF party running second with 20 to 30 per cent,  which means that a coalition of parties may be needed to form government.

But, with section 131(2) of the 2013 Fijian constitution stating that “it shall be the overall responsibility of the Republic of Fiji Military Forces to ensure at all times the security, defence and well-being of Fiji and all Fijians”, it remains to be seen just how events play out.

For example, while PM Bainimarama maintains a positive relationship with China, despite urging China in 2022 to take more action on climate change, Rabuka attributes widespread complaints of police brutality in Fiji in recent years as reflecting a Chinese-style “disciplinarian” approach given joint police training and cooperation arrangements.

With the government also borrowing heavily during the period when COVID-19 put 115,000 Fijians out of work while the ‘debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 48 per cent to over 80 per cent by March due to the pandemic, opposition parties argue that poverty levels are higher than the reported 24.1 per cent in April 2022 at a time of rising inflation (4.7 per cent by April  2022).