The war front is closer than you might like

If we want to prevent more wars, then we need to walk these ideas back.

The West has become delusional, incapable of understanding the political needs of other nations. When White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki attempted to haul in the Taliban's campaign of rape and pillage in Afghanistan by saying, 'The Taliban also has to make an assessment about what they want their role to be in the international community,' you know the American administration has lost its mind.

And if you know it, so do Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.

Putin's reasons for invading Ukraine are a put-up job.

It's not to do with having another Nato country on his borders. Putin already shares borders with five Nato countries. By making Ukraine part of Russia, he guarantees Nato missiles on his borders by moving the border.

It's also not to do with Ukraine being 'Russian'. Some Ukrainians are ethnically Russian, but most of them are Ukrainian, and while Ukraine was part of the Russian Federation at some stages, it has a long history of being independent, as well as being conquered and administered by several other countries and empires, including Poland, Lithuania, the Austro-Hungarians, and the Ottomans. Ukraine was even ruled by the Vikings at one stage. Playing by Putin's rules, does that mean Sweden has a territorial claim?

In Putin's case, he is invading because he can. He's a warlord running a modern(ish) mercantilist oligopoly. He's about raw power and self-aggrandisement – just like the Varangian (Viking) rulers of Ukraine were.

He's also about legacy – for himself and his country. As with Peter the Great, a man who he apparently idolises, Putin is not too concerned about how many dead bodies he has to climb over to secure that legacy.

In another parallel to Peter the Great, Putin believes he has a right to rule Russia, and that in some fundamental way he owns Russia and Russians. As Louis XIV said, 'L'etat, c'est moi!' – that's the basic monarchical mindset.

That is an entirely different way to how a Western ruler would see themselves.

If Putin gets his way in Ukraine, it will be the triumph of the past over both the present and the future. It would see a rolling back of the rules-based order that Europe has enjoyed with relative calm. Putin would have his imitators, starting with Xi Jinping.

What are the consequences of this war for Australia?