Why is it so impossible to predict the outcome of PNG elections

The difficulty is that the constitution effectively provides that parliament can only reject all proposed boundary changes. Given the highly competitive nature of PNG politics that is just not going to happen, where the removal of one "house line" from a rural seat could change its complexion completely.

So elections will be held in May-June on a part preferential count basis. That just makes predicting the outcome even more difficult.  Boundaries that are not balanced, a doubtful set of electoral rolls across the nation, and a voting system that is only part-preferential.

There is no talk of restricting the campaign period to one month given evidence that Covid-19 remains a serious problem, especially in rural areas.

What ever happened, the elections with take place in May and June, with the complex process by which the next Prime Minister is chosen happening in July and August.

Again, the method of choosing the Prime Minister differs from Australia, as it must, given the weak party system. The Parliament will meet after the election and choose the Prime Minister by a ballot on the floor of Parliament.

While it has become "practice" that the two largest "groups” of MPs will nominate a candidate for PM. The process of selecting that candidate is an absolute nightmare, especially of no party, or even a group of parties, gets close to a majority on the floor of Parliament.

This is the most unedifying aspect of the election process - horse trading, money changing hands, miniseries promised and so on. The two "camps" usually gather at luxury hotels and resorts for several weeks to consolidate their "numbers".

Sadly, in doing so the wishes of member’s electorates - who only just voted for them to represent them - are often totally ignored.

But such as democracy - PNG style.

It remains robustly democratic, but it has serious flaws for which there is essentially no path to navigate to a more honest and transparent system.

The system sadly does not guarantee political stability after an election - and that really only happens if one party, or leader, has a clear majority of MPs. That happens, but not always!

I assume the two main contenders for the Prime Ministership as of today are the incumbent, James Marape, and his predecessor, Peter O'Neill. But the field might grow depending on the make-up of the parties and groups after polling concludes.